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Occasionally Misspecified

Jean-Jacques Forneron

arXiv 8 Dec 2023 · Econometrics

arXiv:2312.05342 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

When fitting a particular Economic model on a sample of data, the model may turn out to be heavily misspecified for some observations. This can happen because of unmodelled idiosyncratic events, such as an abrupt but short-lived change in policy. These outliers can significantly alter estimates and inferences. A robust estimation is desirable to limit their influence. For skewed data, this induces another bias which can also invalidate the estimation and inferences. This paper proposes a robust GMM estimator with a simple bias correction that does not degrade robustness significantly. The paper provides finite-sample robustness bounds, and asymptotic uniform equivalence with an oracle that discards all outliers. Consistency and asymptotic normality ensue from that result. An application to the "Price-Puzzle," which finds inflation increases when monetary policy tightens, illustrates the concerns and the method. The proposed estimator finds the intuitive result: tighter monetary policy leads to a decline in inflation.

Citation extraction

57
references
90
in-text mentions
57
distinct cited
1
self-citations
12,462
main-text words

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Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Huber, P. and E. Ronchetti (2011) Robust Statistics1.00065100%
2Alesina, A. and E. Zhuravskaya (2011) Segregation and the Quality of Government in a Cross Section of Countries0.87472100%
3Romer, D (1993) Openness and inflation: theory and evidence0.87472100%
4Ronchetti, E. and F. Trojani (2001) Robust inference with GMM estimators0.84333100%
5Young, A (2022) Consistency without inference: Instrumental variables in practical application0.84333100%
6Coibion, O (2012) Are the effects of monetary policy shocks big or small?0.64422100%
7Hamilton, L. C (1992) How robust is robust regression?0.64422100%
8Laforgue, P., G. Staerman, and S. Clémencon (2021) Generalization bounds in the presence of outliers: a median-of-means study, in0.64422100%
9Stock, J. H. and M. W. Watson (2001) Vector autoregressions0.64422100%
10Terra, C. T (1998) Openness and inflation: a new assessment0.58531100%

Showing the top 10 of 57 scored citations.