arXiv 11 Jul 2023 · Econometrics
arXiv:2307.05122 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text
Counterfactual predictions are challenging when the policy variable goes beyond its pre-policy support. However, in many cases, information about the policy of interest is available from different ("source") regions where a similar policy has already been implemented. In this paper, we propose a novel method of using such data from source regions to predict a new policy in a target region. Instead of relying on extrapolation of a structural relationship using a parametric specification, we formulate a transferability condition and construct a synthetic outcome-policy relationship such that it is as close as possible to meeting the condition. The synthetic relationship weighs both the similarity in distributions of observables and in structural relationships. We develop a general procedure to construct asymptotic confidence intervals for counterfactual predictions and prove its asymptotic validity. We then apply our proposal to predict average teenage employment in Texas following a counterfactual increase in the minimum wage.
appendix boundary found by none_found · 100% of the source is main text. Read the extracted text to check this.
The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.
| Reference | Intensity | Mentions | Sections | Main text | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ahn, Arcidiacono, and Wessels (2011) The Distributional Impacts of Minimum Wage Increases when both Labor Supply and Labor Demand are Endogenous | 0.693 | 9 | 1 | 100% |
| 2 | Neumark (2019) The Econometrics and Economics of the Employment Effects of Minimum Wages: Getting from Known Unknowns to Known Knowns | 0.693 | 7 | 1 | 100% |
| 3 | Hotz, Imbens, and Mortimer (2005) Predicting the Efficacy of Future Training Programs Using Past Experiences at Other Locations | 0.693 | 6 | 1 | 100% |
| 4 | Flinn (2006) Minimum Wage Effects on Labor Market Outcomes Under Search, Matching, and Endogenous Contact Rates | 0.693 | 5 | 1 | 100% |
| 5 | Hahn and Liao (2021) Bootstrap Standard Error Estimates and Inference | 0.693 | 5 | 1 | 100% |
| 6 | Wolpin (2013) The Limits of Inference Without Theory | 0.693 | 5 | 1 | 100% |
| 7 | Canen and Song (2025) Simple Inference on a Simplex-Valued Weight | 0.644 | 4 | 1 | 100% |
| 8 | Athey, Chetty, and Imbens (2020) Combining Experimental and Observational Data to Estimate Treatment Effects on Long Term Outcomes | 0.585 | 3 | 1 | 100% |
| 9 | DiNardo, Fortin, and Lemieux (1996) Labor Market Institutions and the Distribution of Wages, 1973-1992: A Semiparametric Approach | 0.585 | 3 | 1 | 100% |
| 10 | Hartman, Grieve, Ramsahai, and Sekhon (2015) From Sample Average Treatment Effect to Population Average Treatment Effect on the Treated: Combining Experimental with Observat… | 0.585 | 3 | 1 | 100% |
Showing the top 10 of 80 scored citations.
arXiv econ.EM papers that cite this one, ranked by how heavily they lean on it.
| Citing paper | Intensity | Mentions | Sections | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Testing Information Ordering for Strategic Agents | 0.405 | 1 | 1 |