Francis X. Diebold, Glenn D. Rudebusch
arXiv 7 Jul 2023 · Econometrics · publishedEnergy Economics (2023) · 10 citations (OpenAlex)
arXiv:2307.03552 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text
Arctic sea ice has steadily diminished as atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations have increased. Using observed data from 1979 to 2019, we estimate a close contemporaneous linear relationship between Arctic sea ice area and cumulative carbon dioxide emissions. For comparison, we provide analogous regression estimates using simulated data from global climate models (drawn from the CMIP5 and CMIP6 model comparison exercises). The carbon sensitivity of Arctic sea ice area is considerably stronger in the observed data than in the climate models. Thus, for a given future emissions path, an ice-free Arctic is likely to occur much earlier than the climate models project. Furthermore, little progress has been made in recent global climate modeling (from CMIP5 to CMIP6) to more accurately match the observed carbon-climate response of Arctic sea ice.
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The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.
| Reference | Intensity | Mentions | Sections | Main text | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Diebold and Rudebusch (2022) Probability Assessments of an Ice-Free Arctic: Comparing Statistical and Climate Model Projections, Journal of Econometrics\/, 2… | 1.000 | 9 | 3 | 100% |
| 2 | Notz and Stroeve (2016) Observed Arctic Sea-Ice Loss Directly Follows Anthropogenic CO2 Emission, Science\/, 354, 747–750 | 0.976 | 14 | 4 | 93% |
| 3 | Diebold, Rudebusch, Goebel, Goulet Coulombe, and Zhang (2023) When Will Arctic Sea Ice Disappear? Projections of Area, Extent, Thickness, and Volume, Journal of Econometrics\/, in press | 0.811 | 4 | 2 | 100% |
| 4 | Stroeve and Notz (2018) Changing State of Arctic Sea Ice Across All Seasons, Environmental Research Letters\/, 13, 103001 | 0.737 | 3 | 2 | 100% |
| 5 | Johannessen (2008) Decreasing Arctic Sea Ice Mirrors Increasing CO2 on Decadal Time Scale, Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters\/, 1, 51–56 | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 6 | Notz and Stroeve (2018) The Trajectory Towards a Seasonally Ice-Free Arctic Ocean, Current Climate Change Reports\/, 4, 407–416 | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 7 | Rosenblum and Eisenman (2017) Sea Ice Trends in Climate Models Only Accurate in Runs with 49 Biased Global Warming, Journal of Climate\/, 30, 6265–6278 | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 8 | Notz and SIMIP Community (2020) Arctic sea ice in CMIP6, Geophysical Research Letters\/, 47, e2019GL086749 | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 9 | Melia, Haines, and Hawkins (2015) Improved Arctic Sea Ice Thickness Projections using Bias-Corrected CMIP5 Simulations, The Cryosphere\/, 9, 2237–2251 | 0.585 | 3 | 1 | 100% |
| 10 | Guarino, Sime, Schroeder, Malmierca-Vallet, Rosenblum, Ringer, Ridle… (2020) Sea-Ice Free Arctic During the Last Interglacial Supports Fast Future Loss, Nature Climate Change\/, 10, 928–932 | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
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