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Quantifying Distributional Model Risk in Marginal Problems via Optimal Transport

Yanqin Fan, Hyeonseok Park, Gaoqian Xu

arXiv 3 Jul 2023 · Mathematics — Optimization · publishedMathematics of Operations Research (2025) · 3 citations (OpenAlex)

arXiv:2307.00779 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

This paper studies distributional model risk in marginal problems, where each marginal measure is assumed to lie in a Wasserstein ball centered at a fixed reference measure with a given radius. Theoretically, we establish several fundamental results including strong duality, finiteness of the proposed Wasserstein distributional model risk, and the existence of an optimizer at each radius. In addition, we show continuity of the Wasserstein distributional model risk as a function of the radius. Using strong duality, we extend the well-known Makarov bounds for the distribution function of the sum of two random variables with given marginals to Wasserstein distributionally robust Markarov bounds. Practically, we illustrate our results on four distinct applications when the sample information comes from multiple data sources and only some marginal reference measures are identified. They are: partial identification of treatment effects; externally valid treatment choice via robust welfare functions; Wasserstein distributionally robust estimation under data combination; and evaluation of the worst aggregate risk measures.

Citation extraction

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Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Blanchet, Jose, Murthy, Karthyek (2019) Quantifying Distributional Model Risk via Optimal Transport1.00083100%
2Rüschendorf, Ludger (1991) Bounds for distributions with multivariate marginals1.00083100%
3Embrechts, Paul, Puccetti, Giovanni (2010) Bounds for the sum of dependent risks having overlapping marginals1.00063100%
4Awasthi, Pranjal, Jung, Christopher, Morgenstern, Jamie (2022) Distributionally Robust Data Join1.00063100%
5Fan, Yanqin, Guerre, Emmanuel, Zhu, Dongming (2017) Partial identification of functionals of the joint distribution of “potential outcomes” self1.00054100%
6Adjaho, Christopher, Christensen, Timothy (2023) Externally Valid Policy Choice0.94613485%
7Villani, Cédric (2021) Topics in optimal transportation0.9285480%
8Fan, Yanqin, Wu, Jisong (2009) Partial identification of the distribution of treatment effects in switching regime models and its confidence sets self0.92843100%
9Zhang, Luhao, Yang, Jincheng, Gao, Rui (2022) A simple duality proof for wasserstein distributionally robust optimization0.92314679%
10Villani, Cédric (2009) Optimal transport: old and new0.8947571%

Showing the top 10 of 60 scored citations.

Cited by, within the corpus

arXiv econ.EM papers that cite this one, ranked by how heavily they lean on it.

Citing paperIntensityMentionsSections
1An econometrician's guide to optimal transport0.64441
2Distributionally Robust Instrumental Variables Estimation0.51122
3Policy Learning with $$-Expected Welfare0.40511
4Distributionally Robust Treatment Effect0.40511