EconBase
← All papers

Improving the accuracy of bubble date estimators under time-varying volatility

Eiji Kurozumi, Anton Skrobotov

arXiv 5 Jun 2023 · Econometrics

arXiv:2306.02977 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

In this study, we consider a four-regime bubble model under the assumption of time-varying volatility and propose the algorithm of estimating the break dates with volatility correction: First, we estimate the emerging date of the explosive bubble, its collapsing date, and the recovering date to the normal market under assumption of homoskedasticity; second, we collect the residuals and then employ the WLS-based estimation of the bubble dates. We demonstrate by Monte Carlo simulations that the accuracy of the break dates estimators improve significantly by this two-step procedure in some cases compared to those based on the OLS method.

Citation extraction

14
references
31
in-text mentions
14
distinct cited
2
self-citations
5,853
main-text words

appendix boundary found by appendix_command · 47% of the source is main text. Read the extracted text to check this.

Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Kurozumi, E. and Skrobotov, A (2022) On the asymptotic behavior of bubble date estimators self1.000104100%
2Phillips, P. C. B., Shi, S., and Yu, J (2015) Testing for multiple bubbles: Historical episodes of exuberance and collapse in the S&P 5000.73732100%
3Phillips, P. C. B., Shi, S., and Yu, J (2015) Testing for multiple bubbles: Limit theory of real-time detectors0.73732100%
4Harvey, D. I., Leybourne, S. J., and Sollis, R (2017) Improving the accuracy of asset price bubble start and end date estimators0.58531100%
5Harvey, D. I., Leybourne, S. J., Sollis, R., and Taylor, A. M. R (2016) Tests for explosive financial bubbles in the presence of non-stationary volatility0.51121100%
6Xu, K.-L. and Phillips, P. C. B (2008) Adaptive estimation of autoregressive models with time-varying variances0.51121100%
7Cavaliere, G. and Taylor, A. M. R (2007) Testing for unit roots in time series models with non-stationary volatility0.40511100%
8Cavaliere, G. and Taylor, A. M. R (2007) Time-transformed unit root tests for models with non-stationary volatility0.40511100%
9Phillips, P. C. B., Wu, Y., and Yu, J (2011) Explosive behavior in the 1990s NASDAQ: When did exuberance escalate asset values?0.40511100%
10Harris, D., Kew, H., and Taylor, A. M. R (2020) Level shift estimation in the presence of non-stationary volatility with an application to the unit root testing problem0.40511100%

Showing the top 10 of 14 scored citations.