Evan Munro, David Jones, Jennifer Brennan, Roland Nelet, Vahab Mirrokni, Jean Pouget-Abadie
arXiv 1 Jun 2023 · Statistics — Methodology · 2 citations (OpenAlex)
arXiv:2306.00485 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text
In online platforms, the impact of a treatment on an observed outcome may change over time as 1) users learn about the intervention, and 2) the system personalization, such as individualized recommendations, change over time. We introduce a non-parametric causal model of user actions in a personalized system. We show that the Cookie-Cookie-Day (CCD) experiment, designed for the measurement of the user learning effect, is biased when there is personalization. We derive new experimental designs that intervene in the personalization system to generate the variation necessary to separately identify the causal effect mediated through user learning and personalization. Making parametric assumptions allows for the estimation of long-term causal effects based on medium-term experiments. In simulations, we show that our new designs successfully recover the dynamic causal effects of interest.
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| Reference | Intensity | Mentions | Sections | Main text | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Henning Hohnhold, Deirdre O'Brien, and Diane Tang (2015) Focusing on the Long-Term: It's Good for Users and Business. In Proceedings of the 21th ACM SIGKDD International Conference on K… | 1.000 | 12 | 4 | 100% |
| 2 | Soheil Sadeghi, Somit Gupta, Stefan Gramatovici, Jiannan Lu, Hao Ai,… (2022) Novelty and primacy: a long-term estimator for online experiments | 0.511 | 2 | 1 | 100% |
| 3 | Susan Athey, Raj Chetty, Guido W Imbens, and Hyunseung Kang (2019) The surrogate index: Combining short-term proxies to estimate long-term treatment effects more rapidly and precisely | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 4 | Patrick Bajari, Brian Burdick, Guido W Imbens, Lorenzo Masoero, Jame… (2021) Multiple randomization designs | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
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| 7 | Iavor Bojinov, David Simchi-Levi, and Jinglong Zhao (2022) Design and analysis of switchback experiments | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 8 | Dean Eckles, Brian Karrer, Johan Ugander, et al (2017) Design and Analysis of Experiments in Networks: Reducing Bias from Interference | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 9 | Andrey Fradkin, Elena Grewal, and David Holtz (2021) Reciprocity and unveiling in two-sided reputation systems: Evidence from an experiment on Airbnb | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 10 | Christopher Harshaw, Fredrik Sävje, David Eisenstat, Vahab Mirrokni,… (2021) Design and analysis of bipartite experiments under a linear exposure-response model self | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
Showing the top 10 of 31 scored citations.
arXiv econ.EM papers that cite this one, ranked by how heavily they lean on it.
| Citing paper | Intensity | Mentions | Sections | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Estimating Effects of Long-Term Treatments | 0.405 | 1 | 1 |