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Just Ask Them Twice: Choice Probabilities and Identification of Ex ante returns and Willingness-To-Pay

Romuald Meango, Esther Mirjam Girsberger

arXiv 6 Mar 2023 · Econometrics · publishedThe Economic Journal (2026) · 2 citations (OpenAlex)

arXiv:2303.03009 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

One of the exciting developments in the stated preference literature is the use of probabilistic stated preference experiments to estimate semi-parametric population distributions of ex ante returns and willingness-to-pay (WTP) for a choice attribute. This relies on eliciting several choices per individual, and estimating separate demand functions, at the cost of possibly long survey instruments. This paper shows that the distributions of interest can be recovered from at most two stated choices, without requiring ad-hoc parametric assumptions. Hence, it allows for significantly shorter survey instruments. The paper also shows that eliciting probabilistic stated choices allows identifying much richer objects than we have done so far, and therefore, provides better tools for ex ante policy evaluation. Finally, it showcases the feasibility and relevance of the results by studying the preference of high ability students in Cote d'Ivoire for public sector jobs exploiting a unique survey on this population. Our analysis supports the claim that public sector jobs might significantly increase the cost of hiring elite students for the private sector.

Citation extraction

74
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distinct cited
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appendix boundary found by appendix_command · 75% of the source is main text. Read the extracted text to check this.

Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Wiswall, M. and Zafar, B (2018) Preference for the workplace, investment in human capital, and gender1.000123100%
2Christiaensen, L. and Premand, P (2017) Côte d'ivoire jobs diagnostic: employment, productivity, and inclusion for poverty reduction0.9285480%
3Girsberger, E. M. and Méango, R (2022) The puzzle of educated unemployment in west africa self0.8434475%
4Meango, R (2025) Is the distribution of resolvable uncertainty type i extreme value? a test for random coefficient models using choice probabilit… self0.84333100%
5Blass, A. A., Lach, S., and Manski, C. F (2010) Using elicited choice probabilities to estimate random utility models: Preferences for electricity reliability0.81142100%
6Chernozhukov, V., Fernández-Val, I., and Melly, B (2013) Inference on counterfactual distributions0.81142100%
7Méango, R. and Poinas, F (2023) The option value of overstaying0.7373367%
8Hudomiet, P., Hurd, M. D., and Rohwedder, S (2018) The causal effects of economic incentives, health and job characteristics on retirement: estimates based on subjective condition…0.73732100%
9Mangal, K (2024) How Much Are Government Jobs in Developing Countries Worth?0.73732100%
10Manski, C. F (1999) Analysis of choice expectations in incomplete scenarios0.73732100%

Showing the top 10 of 74 scored citations.