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High-Dimensional Conditionally Gaussian State Space Models with Missing Data

Joshua C. C. Chan, Aubrey Poon, Dan Zhu

arXiv 7 Feb 2023 · Econometrics · publishedJournal of Econometrics (2023) · 20 citations (OpenAlex)

arXiv:2302.03172 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

We develop an efficient sampling approach for handling complex missing data patterns and a large number of missing observations in conditionally Gaussian state space models. Two important examples are dynamic factor models with unbalanced datasets and large Bayesian VARs with variables in multiple frequencies. A key insight underlying the proposed approach is that the joint distribution of the missing data conditional on the observed data is Gaussian. Moreover, the inverse covariance or precision matrix of this conditional distribution is sparse, and this special structure can be exploited to substantially speed up computations. We illustrate the methodology using two empirical applications. The first application combines quarterly, monthly and weekly data using a large Bayesian VAR to produce weekly GDP estimates. In the second application, we extract latent factors from unbalanced datasets involving over a hundred monthly variables via a dynamic factor model with stochastic volatility.

Citation extraction

57
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appendix boundary found by appendix_titled_section at “Appendix A: Dataset for the Mixed-Frequency VAR” · 79% of the source is main text. Read the extracted text to check this.

Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Schorfheide and Song (2015) Real-time forecasting with a mixed-frequency VAR1.000103100%
2McCracken and Ng (2016) FRED-MD: A monthly database for macroeconomic research0.87452100%
3Carriero, Clark, Marcellino, and Mertens (2022) Addressing COVID-19 outliers in BVARs with stochastic volatility0.84333100%
4Chan (2020) Large Bayesian VARs: A Flexible Kronecker Error Covariance Structure self0.84333100%
5Lewis, Mertens, Stock, and Trivedi (2022) Modeling macroeconomic variations after COVID-190.7374275%
6Antolin-Diaz, Drechsel, and Petrella (2021) Advances in nowcasting economic activity: Secular trends, large shocks and new data0.73732100%
7Aruoba, Diebold, and Scotti (2009) Real-time measurement of business conditions0.73732100%
8Carriero, Clark, and Marcellino (2016) Common drifting volatility in large Bayesian VARs0.73732100%
9Chan and Jeliazkov (2009) Efficient simulation and integrated likelihood estimation in state space models self0.73732100%
10Mariano and Murasawa (2003) A new coincident index of business cycles based on monthly and quarterly series0.73732100%

Showing the top 10 of 57 scored citations.

Cited by, within the corpus

arXiv econ.EM papers that cite this one, ranked by how heavily they lean on it.

Citing paperIntensityMentionsSections
1Tracking the economy at high frequency Working Paper0.64422
2Taking the Highway or the Green Road? Conditional Temperature Forecasts Under Alternative SSP Scenarios0.64422
3Nowcasting using regression on signatures0.40511
4BVARs and Stochastic Volatility0.40511
5Firm Heterogeneity and Macroeconomic Fluctuations: a Functional VAR model0.40511
6Nowcasting and aggregation: Why small Euro area countries matter0.40511