EconBase
← All papers

Hierarchical Regularizers for Reverse Unrestricted Mixed Data Sampling Regressions

Alain Hecq, Marie Ternes, Ines Wilms

arXiv 25 Jan 2023 · Econometrics · publishedJournal of Forecasting (2025)

arXiv:2301.10592 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

Reverse Unrestricted MIxed DAta Sampling (RU-MIDAS) regressions are used to model high-frequency responses by means of low-frequency variables. However, due to the periodic structure of RU-MIDAS regressions, the dimensionality grows quickly if the frequency mismatch between the high- and low-frequency variables is large. Additionally the number of high-frequency observations available for estimation decreases. We propose to counteract this reduction in sample size by pooling the high-frequency coefficients and further reduce the dimensionality through a sparsity-inducing convex regularizer that accounts for the temporal ordering among the different lags. To this end, the regularizer prioritizes the inclusion of lagged coefficients according to the recency of the information they contain. We demonstrate the proposed method on two empirical applications, one on realized volatility forecasting with macroeconomic data and another on demand forecasting for a bicycle-sharing system with ridership data on other transportation types.

Citation extraction

52
references
89
in-text mentions
52
distinct cited
2
self-citations
10,865
main-text words

appendix boundary found by appendix_command · 88% of the source is main text. Read the extracted text to check this.

Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Foroni, C., P. Guérin, and M. Marcellino (2018) Using low frequency information for predicting high frequency variables0.87472100%
2Hecq, A., M. Ternes, and I. Wilms (2022) Hierarchical regularizers for mixed-frequency vector autoregressions self0.87462100%
3Conrad, C. and K. Loch (2015) Anticipating long-term stock market volatility0.81142100%
4Fang, T., T.-H. Lee, and Z. Su (2020) Predicting the long-term stock market volatility: A GARCH-MIDAS model with variable selection0.81142100%
5Ghysels, E (2016) Macroeconomics and the reality of mixed frequency data0.81142100%
6Babii, A., E. Ghysels, and J. Striaukas (2022) Machine learning time series regressions with an application to nowcasting0.73732100%
7Engle, R. F., E. Ghysels, and B. Sohn (2013) Stock market volatility and macroeconomic fundamentals0.73732100%
8Götz, T. B., A. Hecq, and S. Smeekes (2016) Testing for Granger causality in large mixed-frequency VARs0.73732100%
9Asgharian, H., A. J. Hou, and F. Javed (2013) The importance of the macroeconomic variables in forecasting stock return variance: A GARCH-MIDAS approach0.64422100%
10Conrad, C. and O. Kleen (2020) Two are better than one: Volatility forecasting using multiplicative component GARCH-MIDAS models0.64422100%

Showing the top 10 of 52 scored citations.

Cited by, within the corpus

arXiv econ.EM papers that cite this one, ranked by how heavily they lean on it.

Citing paperIntensityMentionsSections
1Econometrics of Machine Learning Methods in Economic Forecasting0.40511