Nathan Canen, Anujit Chakraborty
arXiv 22 Oct 2022 · Econometrics
arXiv:2210.12549 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text
Many experiments elicit subjects' prior and posterior beliefs about a random variable to assess how information affects one's own actions. However, beliefs are multi-dimensional objects, and experimenters often only elicit a single response from subjects. In this paper, we discuss how the incentives offered by experimenters map subjects' true belief distributions to what profit-maximizing subjects respond in the elicitation task. In particular, we show how slightly different incentives may induce subjects to report the mean, mode, or median of their belief distribution. If beliefs are not symmetric and unimodal, then using an elicitation scheme that is mismatched with the research question may affect both the magnitude and the sign of identified effects, or may even make identification impossible. As an example, we revisit Cantoni et al.'s (2019) study of whether political protests are strategic complements or substitutes. We show that they elicit modal beliefs, while modal and mean beliefs may be updated in opposite directions following their experiment. Hence, the sign of their effects may change, allowing an alternative interpretation of their results.
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The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.
| Reference | Intensity | Mentions | Sections | Main text | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bursztyn, L., González, A. L., and Yanagizawa-Drott, D (2020) Misperceived social norms: Women working outside the home in saudi arabia | 0.693 | 6 | 1 | 100% |
| 2 | Cantoni, D., Yang, D. Y., Yuchtman, N., and Zhang, Y. J (2019) Protests as strategic games: experimental evidence from hong kong's antiauthoritarian movement | 0.658 | 41 | 1 | 85% |
| 3 | Hager, A., Hensel, L., Hermle, J., and Roth, C (2022) Group size and protest mobilization across movements and countermovements | 0.644 | 4 | 1 | 100% |
| 4 | Hager, A., Hensel, L., Hermle, J., and Roth, C (2022) Political activists as free-riders: Evidence from a natural field experiment | 0.644 | 4 | 1 | 100% |
| 5 | Jarke-Neuert, J., Perino, G., and Schwickert, H (2021) Free-riding for future: Field experimental evidence of strategic substitutability in climate protest | 0.644 | 4 | 1 | 100% |
| 6 | Chen, Y. and Yang, D. Y (2019) The impact of media censorship: 1984 or brave new world? | 0.511 | 2 | 1 | 100% |
| 7 | Gehlbach, S., Sonin, K., and Svolik, M. W (2016) Formal models of nondemocratic politics | 0.511 | 2 | 1 | 100% |
| 8 | Barbera, S. and Jackson, M. O (2020) A model of protests, revolution, and information | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 9 | Chenoweth, E. and Stephan, M (2011) Why civil resistance works: The strategic logic of nonviolent conflict | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 10 | Bueno de Mesquita, E (2010) Regime change and revolutionary entrepreneurs | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
Showing the top 10 of 17 scored citations.