Luca Aiello, Matteo Fontana, Alessandra Guglielmi
arXiv 13 Sep 2022 · Statistics — Methodology
arXiv:2209.05767 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text
We propose a statistical emulator for a climate-economy deterministic integrated assessment model ensemble, based on a functional regression framework. Inference on the unknown parameters is carried out through a mixed effects hierarchical model using a fully Bayesian framework with a prior distribution on the vector of all parameters. We also suggest an autoregressive parameterization of the covariance matrix of the error, with matching marginal prior. In this way, we allow for a functional framework for the discretized output of the simulators that allows their time continuous evaluation.
appendix boundary found by none_found · 100% of the source is main text. Read the extracted text to check this.
The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.
| Reference | Intensity | Mentions | Sections | Main text | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ramsay, J., Silverman, B., Media, S. S. and Silverman, H. (2005) Fun… Springer Series in Statistics. Springer | 0.843 | 3 | 3 | 100% |
| 2 | Marangoni, G., Tavoni, M., Bosetti, V., Borgonovo, E., Capros, P., F… (2017) Nature Climate Change, 7, 113 | 0.811 | 4 | 2 | 100% |
| 3 | R Core Team (2017) R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Com… R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 4 | Goldsmith, J. and Kitago, T. (2016) Assessing systematic effects of… Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C (Applied Statistics), 65, 215–236 | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 5 | Stan Development Team (2019) RStan: the R interface to Stan http://mc-stan.org/ | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 6 | O’Neill, B. C., Kriegler, E., Riahi, K., Ebi, K. L., Hallegatte, S.,… (2014) Climatic change, 122, 387–400 | 0.511 | 2 | 1 | 100% |
| 7 | Aiello, L. (2020) Bayesian functional emulation and prediction of CO… Master's thesis, Politecnico di Milano self | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 8 | Barber, R. F., Reimherr, M., Schill, T. et al. (2017) The function-o… Electronic Journal of Statistics, 11, 1351–1389 | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 9 | Busby, D. (2009) Hierarchical adaptive experimental design for Gauss… Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 94, 1183–1193 | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 10 | Conti, S. and O’Hagan, A. (2010) Bayesian emulation of complex multi… Journal of statistical planning and inference, 140, 640–651 | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
Showing the top 10 of 31 scored citations.