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Testing for explosive bubbles: a review

Anton Skrobotov

arXiv 17 Jul 2022 · Econometrics · publishedDependence Modeling (2023) · 10 citations (OpenAlex)

arXiv:2207.08249 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

This review discusses methods of testing for explosive bubbles in time series. A large number of recently developed testing methods under various assumptions about innovation of errors are covered. The review also considers the methods for dating explosive (bubble) regimes. Special attention is devoted to time-varying volatility in the errors. Moreover, the modelling of possible relationships between time series with explosive regimes is discussed.

Citation extraction

114
references
284
in-text mentions
114
distinct cited
2
self-citations
14,438
main-text words

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Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Harvey, D.I. and Leybourne, S.J. and Sollis, R. and Taylor, A.M.R (2016) Tests for explosive financial bubbles in the presence of non-stationary volatility1.000113100%
2Harvey, D.I and Leybourne, S.J. and Zu, Y (2020) Sign-based unit root tests for explosive financial bubbles in the presence of deterministically time-varying volatility1.00093100%
3Phillips, P.C.B. and Yu, J (2011) Dating the Timeline of Financial Bubbles during the Subprime Crisis1.00083100%
4Astill, Sam and Harvey, David I and Leybourne, Stephen J and Taylor,… (2017) Tests for an end-of-sample bubble in financial time series1.00073100%
5Harvey, D.I. and Leybourne, S.J. and Sollis, R (2017) Improving the accuracy of asset price bubble start and end date estimators1.00073100%
6Phillips, P.C.B. and Shi, S (2020) Real time monitoring of asset markets: Bubbles and crises1.00073100%
7Phillips, P.C.B. and Wu, Y. and Yu, J (2011) Explosive Behavior in the 1990s Nasdaq: When Did Exuberance Escalate Asset Values?1.00063100%
8Phillips, P.C.B. and Magdalinos, T (2007) Limit Theory for Moderate Deviations from a Unit Root1.00053100%
9Lui, Yiu Lim (2019) Testing for Rational Bubbles under Strongly Dependent Errors0.92843100%
10Phillips, Peter CB and Shi, Shuping and Yu, Jun (2015) Testing for multiple bubbles: Historical episodes of exuberance and collapse in the S&P 5000.92843100%

Showing the top 10 of 114 scored citations.

Cited by, within the corpus

arXiv econ.EM papers that cite this one, ranked by how heavily they lean on it.

Citing paperIntensityMentionsSections
1On the asymptotic behavior of bubble date estimators0.40511
2Break-Point Date Estimation for Nonstationary Autoregressive and Predictive Regression Models0.40511
3Real-time monitoring with RCA models0.40511
4Sequential monitoring for explosive volatility regimes0.40511
5Confidence Sets for the Emergence, Collapse, and Recovery Dates of a Bubble0.40511