João B. Assunção, Pedro Afonso Fernandes
arXiv 14 Jun 2022 · Econometrics
arXiv:2206.06823 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text
In this article, we present a method to forecast the Portuguese gross domestic product (GDP) in each current quarter (nowcasting). It combines bridge equations of the real GDP on readily available monthly data like the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI), industrial production index, cement sales or exports and imports, with forecasts for the jagged missing values computed with the well-known Hodrick and Prescott (HP) filter. As shown, this simple multivariate approach can perform as well as a Targeted Diffusion Index (TDI) model and slightly better than the univariate Theta method in terms of out-of-sample mean errors.
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The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.
| Reference | Intensity | Mentions | Sections | Main text | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | R. J. Hodrick and E. C. Prescott (1997) Postwar u.s. business cycles: An empirical investigation | 0.843 | 3 | 3 | 100% |
| 2 | F. Dias, M. Pinheiro, and A. Rua (2016) Previsão do pib através de uma abordagem bottom-up num contexto rico em informação | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 3 | P. Higgins (2014) Gdpnow: A model for gdp “nowcasting” | 0.585 | 3 | 1 | 100% |
| 4 | L. R. Klein and E. Sojo (1989) Combinations of high and low frequency data in macroeconometric models | 0.585 | 3 | 1 | 100% |
| 5 | R. J. Hyndman and B. Billah (2001) Unmasking the theta method | 0.511 | 2 | 1 | 100% |
| 6 | J. H. Stock and M. W. Watson (2002) Macroeconomic forecasting using diffusion indexes | 0.511 | 2 | 1 | 100% |
| 7 | V. Assimakopoulos and K. Nikolopoulos (2000) The theta model: a decomposition approach to forecasting | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 8 | J. Bai and S. Ng (2008) Forecasting economic time series using targeted predictors | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 9 | F. Dias, M. Pinheiro, and A. Rua (2010) Forecasting using targeted diffusion indexes | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 10 | F. Dias, M. Pinheiro, and A. Rua (2015) Forecasting portuguese gdp with factor models: Pre- and post-crisis evidence | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
Showing the top 10 of 15 scored citations.