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Time-Varying Multivariate Causal Processes

Jiti Gao, Bin Peng, Wei Biao Wu, Yayi Yan

arXiv 1 Jun 2022 · Econometrics · publishedJournal of Econometrics (2024) · 6 citations (OpenAlex)

arXiv:2206.00409 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

In this paper, we consider a wide class of time-varying multivariate causal processes which nests many classic and new examples as special cases. We first prove the existence of a weakly dependent stationary approximation for our model which is the foundation to initiate the theoretical development. Afterwards, we consider the QMLE estimation approach, and provide both point-wise and simultaneous inferences on the coefficient functions. In addition, we demonstrate the theoretical findings through both simulated and real data examples. In particular, we show the empirical relevance of our study using an application to evaluate the conditional correlations between the stock markets of China and U.S. We find that the interdependence between the two stock markets is increasing over time.

Citation extraction

32
references
50
in-text mentions
32
distinct cited
1
self-citations
8,492
main-text words

appendix boundary found by appendix_titled_section at “Appendix A” · 33% of the source is main text. Read the extracted text to check this.

Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Bardet \ Wintenberger (2009) `Asymptotic normality of the quasi-maximum likelihood estimator for multidimensional causal processes', Annals of Statistics 37(…0.87452100%
2Jeantheau (1998) `Strong consistency of estimators for multivariate arch models', Econometric theory 14(1), 70–860.8434375%
3Karmakar, Richter \ Wu (2022) `Simultaneous inference for time-varying models', Journal of Econometrics 227(2), 408–4280.7374350%
4Richter, Dahlhaus et al (2019) `Cross validation for locally stationary processes', Annals of Statistics 47(4), 2145–21730.73732100%
5Diebold \ Yilmaz (2009) `Measuring financial asset return and volatility spillovers, with application to global equity markets', The Economic Journal 11…0.64422100%
6Zhou \ Wu (2010) `Simultaneous inference of linear models with time varying coefficients', Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B 72(…0.64422100%
7Bauwens, Laurent \ Rombouts (2006) `Multivariate garch models: a survey', Journal of Applied Econometrics 21(1), 79–1090.51121100%
8Ling \ McAleer (2003) `Asymptotic theory for a vector ARMA-GARCH model', Econometric theory pp. 280–3100.51121100%
9Lütkepohl (2005) New Introduction to Multiple Time Series Analysis, Springer Science & Business Media0.51121100%
10Baele (2005) `Volatility spillover effects in european equity markets', Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 40(2), 373–4010.40511100%

Showing the top 10 of 32 scored citations.

Cited by, within the corpus

arXiv econ.EM papers that cite this one, ranked by how heavily they lean on it.

Citing paperIntensityMentionsSections
1Inference on many jumps in nonparametric panel regression models0.40511