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Stable Outcomes and Information in Games: An Empirical Framework

Paul S. Koh

arXiv 10 May 2022 · Econometrics · publishedJournal of Econometrics (2023) · 2 citations (OpenAlex)

arXiv:2205.04990 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

Empirically, many strategic settings are characterized by stable outcomes in which players' decisions are publicly observed, yet no player takes the opportunity to deviate. To analyze such situations in the presence of incomplete information, we build an empirical framework by introducing a novel solution concept that we call Bayes stable equilibrium. Our framework allows the researcher to be agnostic about players' information and the equilibrium selection rule. The Bayes stable equilibrium identified set collapses to the complete information pure strategy Nash equilibrium identified set under strong assumptions on players' information. Furthermore, all else equal, it is weakly tighter than the Bayes correlated equilibrium identified set. We also propose computationally tractable approaches for estimation and inference. In an application, we study the strategic entry decisions of McDonald's and Burger King in the US. Our results highlight the identifying power of informational assumptions and show that the Bayes stable equilibrium identified set can be substantially tighter than the Bayes correlated equilibrium identified set. In a counterfactual experiment, we examine the impact of increasing access to healthy food on the market structures in Mississippi food deserts.

Citation extraction

73
references
163
in-text mentions
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distinct cited
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self-citations
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main-text words

appendix boundary found by appendix_command · 65% of the source is main text. Read the extracted text to check this.

Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Yang, N (2020) Learning in retail entry1.00053100%
2Bergemann, D. and S. Morris (2016) Bayes correlated equilibrium and the comparison of information structures in games0.96510390%
3Syrgkanis, V., E. Tamer, and J. Ziani (2021) Inference on Auctions with Weak Assumptions on Information, Working Paper0.9619589%
4Ciliberto, F. and E. Tamer (2009) Market Structure and Multiple Equilibria in Airline Markets0.9568588%
5Magnolfi, L. and C. Roncoroni (forthcoming): Estimation of Discrete…0.89414771%
6Liu, Q (2020) Stability and Bayesian Consistency in Two-Sided Markets0.87462100%
7Horowitz, J. L. and S. Lee (forthcoming): Inference in a class of op…0.87452100%
8Radner, R (1979) Rational expectations equilibrium: Generic existence and the information revealed by prices0.87452100%
9Allcott, H., R. Diamond, J.-P. Dubé, J. Handbury, I. Rahkovsky, and… (2019) Food Deserts and the Causes of Nutritional Inequality0.81142100%
10Kalai, E (2004) Large Robust Games0.73732100%

Showing the top 10 of 73 scored citations.

Cited by, within the corpus

arXiv econ.EM papers that cite this one, ranked by how heavily they lean on it.

Citing paperIntensityMentionsSections
1Identification and Estimation of Dynamic Games with Unknown Information Structure1.00085
2Estimating Discrete Games of Complete Information: Bringing Logit Back in the Game0.941126
3An Empirical Framework for Discrete Games with Costly Information Acquisition0.87452
4The Core of Bayesian Persuasion0.40511
5Testing Information Ordering for Strategic Agents0.40511