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Asymptotic Theory for Unit Root Moderate Deviations in Quantile Autoregressions and Predictive Regressions

Christis Katsouris

arXiv 5 Apr 2022 · Econometrics

arXiv:2204.02073 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

We establish the asymptotic theory in quantile autoregression when the model parameter is specified with respect to moderate deviations from the unit boundary of the form (1 + c / k) with a convergence sequence that diverges at a rate slower than the sample size n. Then, extending the framework proposed by Phillips and Magdalinos (2007), we consider the limit theory for the near-stationary and the near-explosive cases when the model is estimated with a conditional quantile specification function and model parameters are quantile-dependent. Additionally, a Bahadur-type representation and limiting distributions based on the M-estimators of the model parameters are derived. Specifically, we show that the serial correlation coefficient converges in distribution to a ratio of two independent random variables. Monte Carlo simulations illustrate the finite-sample performance of the estimation procedure under investigation.

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Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Phillips, P. C. B. and Magdalinos, T (2007) Limit theory for moderate deviations from a unit root0.96911591%
2Wang, X., Tang, X., and Song, Y (2022) Asymptotics of m-estimators for moderate deviations from a unit root model with possibly infinite variance0.8434375%
3Chan, N. H., Peng, L., and Qi, Y (2006) Quantile inference for near-integrated autoregressive time series with infinite variance0.81142100%
4Buchmann, B. and Chan, N. H (2007) Asymptotic theory of least squares estimators for nearly unstable processes under strong dependence0.73732100%
5Hui, J., Yilong, W., and Guangyu, Y (2022) Deviation inequalities and cramer-type moderate deviations for the explosive autoregressive process0.73732100%
6Magdalinos, T. and Petrova, K (2022) Uniform and distribution-free inference with general autoregressive processes0.73732100%
7Phillips, P. C. B. and Magdalinos, T (2009) Econometric inference in the vicinity of unity0.73732100%
8Aue, A. and Horváth, L (2007) A limit theorem for mildly explosive autoregression with stable errors0.73732100%
9Dickey, D. A. and Fuller, W. A (1979) Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root0.73732100%
10Kostakis, A., Magdalinos, T., and Stamatogiannis, M. P (2015) Robust econometric inference for stock return predictability0.73732100%

Showing the top 10 of 95 scored citations.