Francis X. Diebold, Glenn D. Rudebusch, Maximilian Goebel, Philippe Goulet Coulombe, Boyuan Zhang
arXiv 8 Mar 2022 · Econometrics · publishedJournal of Econometrics (2023) · 24 citations (OpenAlex)
arXiv:2203.04040 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text
Rapidly diminishing Arctic summer sea ice is a strong signal of the pace of global climate change. We provide point, interval, and density forecasts for four measures of Arctic sea ice: area, extent, thickness, and volume. Importantly, we enforce the joint constraint that these measures must simultaneously arrive at an ice-free Arctic. We apply this constrained joint forecast procedure to models relating sea ice to atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and models relating sea ice directly to time. The resulting "carbon-trend" and "time-trend" projections are mutually consistent and predict a nearly ice-free summer Arctic Ocean by the mid-2030s with an 80% probability. Moreover, the carbon-trend projections show that global adoption of a lower carbon path would likely delay the arrival of a seasonally ice-free Arctic by only a few years.
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The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.
| Reference | Intensity | Mentions | Sections | Main text | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Diebold and Rudebusch (2022) Probability Assessments of an Ice-Free Arctic: Comparing Statistical and Climate Model Projections, Journal of Econometrics\/, 2… | 1.000 | 6 | 3 | 100% |
| 2 | Notz and Stroeve (2016) Observed Arctic Sea-Ice Loss Directly Follows Anthropogenic CO2 Emission, Science\/, 354, 747–750 | 0.874 | 5 | 2 | 100% |
| 3 | Notz and SIMIP (2020) Arctic Sea Ice in CMIP6, Geophysical Research Letters\/, 47 | 0.843 | 3 | 3 | 100% |
| SeaIceBookCh5 | unmatched citation key SeaIceBookCh5 | 0.737 | 3 | 2 | 100% |
| 5 | Stroeve, Serreze, Holland, Kay, Malanik, and Barrett (2012) The Arctic's Rapidly Shrinking Sea Ice Cover: A Research Synthesis, Climatic Change\/, 110, 1005–1027 | 0.737 | 3 | 2 | 100% |
| 6 | Stroeve and Notz (2018) Changing State of Arctic Sea Ice Across All Seasons, Environmental Research Letters\/, 13, 103001 | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 7 | Rogelj, Trewin, Haustein, Canadell, Szopa, Milinski, Marotzke, and Z… (2021) Summary for Policymakers of the Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report - Data for Figure SPM.10 (v2021… | 0.511 | 3 | 2 | 33% |
| 8 | Allan, Hawkins, Ballouin, and Collins (2022) IPCC, 2021: Summary for Policymakers, In Masson-Delmotte, V., P | 0.511 | 2 | 2 | 50% |
| 9 | Miller and Nam (2020) Dating Hiatuses: A Statistical Model of the Recent Slowdown in Global Warming and the Next One, Earth System Dynamics\/, 11, 112… | 0.511 | 2 | 1 | 100% |
| 10 | Raupach (2013) The Exponential Eigenmodes of the Carbon-Climate System, and their Implications for Ratios of Responses to Forcings, Earth Syste… | 0.511 | 2 | 1 | 100% |
Showing the top 10 of 53 scored citations. 1 of these could not be matched to a bibliography entry, so only the citation key is shown.
arXiv econ.EM papers that cite this one, ranked by how heavily they lean on it.
| Citing paper | Intensity | Mentions | Sections | |
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| 1 | On changepoint detection in functional data using empirical energy distance | 0.405 | 1 | 1 |