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Dynamic Spatiotemporal ARCH Models

Philipp Otto, Osman Doğan, Süleyman Taşpınar

arXiv 28 Feb 2022 · Statistics — Methodology · publishedSpatial Economic Analysis (2023) · 9 citations (OpenAlex)

arXiv:2202.13856 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

Geo-referenced data are characterized by an inherent spatial dependence due to the geographical proximity. In this paper, we introduce a dynamic spatiotemporal autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) process to describe the effects of (i) the log-squared time-lagged outcome variable, i.e., the temporal effect, (ii) the spatial lag of the log-squared outcome variable, i.e., the spatial effect, and (iii) the spatial lag of the log-squared time-lagged outcome variable, i.e., the spatiotemporal effect, on the volatility of an outcome variable. Furthermore, our suggested process allows for the fixed effects over time and space to account for the unobserved heterogeneity. For this dynamic spatiotemporal ARCH model, we derive a generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator based on the linear and quadratic moment conditions of a specific transformation. We show the consistency and asymptotic normality of the GMM estimator, and determine the best set of moment functions. We investigate the finite-sample properties of the proposed GMM estimator in a series of Monte-Carlo simulations with different model specifications and error distributions. Our simulation results show that our suggested GMM estimator has good finite sample properties. In an empirical application, we use monthly log-returns of the average condominium prices of each postcode of Berlin from 1995 to 2015 (190 spatial units, 240 time points) to demonstrate the use of our suggested model. Our estimation results show that the temporal, spatial and spatiotemporal lags of the log-squared returns have statistically significant effects on the volatility of the log-returns.

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34
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51
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distinct cited
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Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Lee, L.-f. L. and Yu, J (2014) Efficient GMM estimation of spatial dynamic panel data models with fixed effects0.81413454%
2Lee, L.-f (2007) GMM and 2SLS estimation of mixed regressive, spatial autoregressive models0.7373367%
3Yu, J., de Jong, R., and fei Lee, L (2008) Quasi-maximum likelihood estimators for spatial dynamic panel data with fixed effects when both n and t are large0.6443267%
4Lee, L.-f. and Yu, J (2010) A spatial dynamic panel data model with both time and individual fixed effects0.51121100%
5Bollerslev, T., Chou, R. Y., and Kroner, K. F (1992) Arch modeling in finance: A review of the theory and empirical evidence0.40511100%
6Engle, R. F (1982) Autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity with estimates of the variance of United Kingdom inflation0.40511100%
7Engle, R. F. and Bollerslev, T (1986) Modelling the persistence of conditional variances0.40511100%
8Hlleland, S. and Karlsen, H. A (2020) A stationary spatio-temporal GARCH model0.40511100%
9Jacquier, E., Polson, N. G., and Rossi, P. E (1994) Bayesian analysis of stochastic volatility models0.40511100%
10Kelejian, H. H. and Prucha, I. R (2010) Specification and estimation of spatial autoregressive models with autoregressive and heteroskedastic disturbances0.40511100%

Showing the top 10 of 34 scored citations.

Cited by, within the corpus

arXiv econ.EM papers that cite this one, ranked by how heavily they lean on it.

Citing paperIntensityMentionsSections
1Dynamic Spatiotemporal ARCH Models: Small and Large Sample Results1.00083
2Forecasting Oil Volatility through Network Models with GARCH-Informed Correlation Weights1.00084
3Network log-ARCH models for forecasting stock market volatility0.87472
4Spatial and Spatiotemporal Volatility Models: A Review0.87472
5A Dynamic Spatiotemporal and Network ARCH Model with Common Factors0.51121