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Sequential Monte Carlo With Model Tempering

Marko Mlikota, Frank Schorfheide

arXiv 14 Feb 2022 · Econometrics · publishedStudies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics (2023) · 2 citations (OpenAlex)

arXiv:2202.07070 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

Modern macroeconometrics often relies on time series models for which it is time-consuming to evaluate the likelihood function. We demonstrate how Bayesian computations for such models can be drastically accelerated by reweighting and mutating posterior draws from an approximating model that allows for fast likelihood evaluations, into posterior draws from the model of interest, using a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithm. We apply the technique to the estimation of a vector autoregression with stochastic volatility and a nonlinear dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. The runtime reductions we obtain range from 27% to 88%.

Citation extraction

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Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Herbst and Schorfheide (2015) Bayesian Estimation of DSGE Models0.84333100%
2Herbst and Schorfheide (2014) Sequential Monte Carlo Sampling for DSGE Models0.81142100%
3Durham and Geweke (2014) Adaptive Sequential Posterior Simulators for Massively Parallel Computing Environments0.64422100%
4Acharya, Chen, Del Negro, Dogra, Matlin, and Sarfati (2021) Estimating HANK: Macro Time Series and Micro Moments0.40511100%
5Aruoba, Mlikota, Schorfheide, and Villalvazo (2022) SVARs with Occasionally-Binding Constraints0.40511100%
6Cai, Del Negro, Herbst, Matlin, Sarfati, and Schorfheide (2021) Online Estimation of DSGE Models0.40511100%
7Chopin (2002) A Sequential Particle Filter for Static Models0.40511100%
8Chopin, Jacob, and Papaspiliopoulos (2013) $SMC^2$: an efficient algorithm for sequential analysis of state space models0.40511100%
9Creal (2007) Sequential Monte Carlo Samplers for Bayesian DSGE Models0.40511100%
10Del Negro and Schorfheide (2012) DSGE Model Based Forecasting0.40511100%

Showing the top 10 of 15 scored citations.