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Managers versus Machines: Do Algorithms Replicate Human Intuition in Credit Ratings?

Matthew Harding, Gabriel F. R. Vasconcelos

arXiv 9 Feb 2022 · Econometrics · 2 citations (OpenAlex)

arXiv:2202.04218 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

We use machine learning techniques to investigate whether it is possible to replicate the behavior of bank managers who assess the risk of commercial loans made by a large commercial US bank. Even though a typical bank already relies on an algorithmic scorecard process to evaluate risk, bank managers are given significant latitude in adjusting the risk score in order to account for other holistic factors based on their intuition and experience. We show that it is possible to find machine learning algorithms that can replicate the behavior of the bank managers. The input to the algorithms consists of a combination of standard financials and soft information available to bank managers as part of the typical loan review process. We also document the presence of significant heterogeneity in the adjustment process that can be traced to differences across managers and industries. Our results highlight the effectiveness of machine learning based analytic approaches to banking and the potential challenges to high-skill jobs in the financial sector.

Citation extraction

40
references
44
in-text mentions
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distinct cited
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Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Leo Breiman (2017) Classification and regression trees0.64422100%
2Max Kuhn et al (2008) Building predictive models in r using the caret package0.64422100%
3Jerome H Friedman (2001) Greedy function approximation: a gradient boosting machine0.51121100%
4Tianqi Chen, Tong He, Michael Benesty, Vadim Khotilovich, Yuan Tang,… (2019) xgboost: Extreme Gradient Boosting, 20190.51121100%
5Simona Abis (2017) Man vs. machine: Quantitative and discretionary equity management0.40511100%
6David Autor, David Mindell, and Elizabeth Reynolds (2020) The work of the future: Building better jobs in an age of intelligent machines0.40511100%
7Andrii Babii, Xi Chen, Eric Ghysels, and Rohit Kumar (2020) Binary choice with asymmetric loss in a data-rich environment: Theory and an application to racial justice0.40511100%
8Leo Breiman (1996) Bagging predictors0.40511100%
9Leo Breiman (2001) Random forests0.40511100%
10Peter Bühlmann (2006) Boosting for high-dimensional linear models0.40511100%

Showing the top 10 of 40 scored citations.