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A General Description of Growth Trends

Moshe Elitzur

arXiv 31 Jan 2022 · Econometrics · publishedStats (2022)

arXiv:2201.13000 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

Time series that display periodicity can be described with a Fourier expansion. In a similar vein, a recently developed formalism enables description of growth patterns with the optimal number of parameters (Elitzur et al, 2020). The method has been applied to the growth of national GDP, population and the COVID-19 pandemic; in all cases the deviations of long-term growth patterns from pure exponential required no more than two additional parameters, mostly only one. Here I utilize the new framework to develop a unified formulation for all functions that describe growth deceleration, wherein the growth rate decreases with time. The result offers the prospects for a new general tool for trend removal in time-series analysis.

Citation extraction

22
references
45
in-text mentions
22
distinct cited
4
self-citations
9,912
main-text words

appendix boundary found by appendix_command · 92% of the source is main text. Read the extracted text to check this.

Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Elitzur, M.; Kaplan, S.; Zilberman, D (2019) Hindered growth self1.00075100%
2Elitzur, M.; Kaplan, S.; Željko Ivezić.; Zilberman, D (2021) The impact of policy timing on the spread of COVID-19 self1.00053100%
3Griliches, Z (1957) Hybrid Corn: An Exploration in the Economics of Technological Change0.84333100%
4Ivezić, Z.; Connolly, A.; Vanderplas, J.; Gray, A (2014) Statistics, Data Mining and Machine Learning in Astronomy; Princeton University Press, 2014. red0.73732100%
5Lekvall, P.; Wahlbin, C (1973) A study of some assumptions underlying innovation diffusion functions0.73732100%
6Pearl, R (1924) The Curve of Population Growth0.73732100%
7de Smith, M.J (2021) Statistical Analysis Handbook; 20210.64441100%
8Pianka, E.R (1970) On r- and K-Selection0.64422100%
9Schacht, R.M (1980) Two Models of Population Growth0.64422100%
10Blain, G.C (2013) The Mann-Kendall test: the need to consider the interaction between serial correlation and trend0.40511100%

Showing the top 10 of 22 scored citations.