arXiv 16 Dec 2021 · Econometrics
arXiv:2112.09170 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text
This paper introduces a framework for incorporating prior information into the design of sequential experiments. These sources may include past experiments, expert opinions, or the experimenter's intuition. We model the problem using a multi-prior Bayesian approach, mapping each source to a Bayesian model and aggregating them based on posterior probabilities. Policies are evaluated on three criteria: learning the parameters of payoff distributions, the probability of choosing the wrong treatment, and average rewards. Our framework demonstrates several desirable properties, including robustness to sources lacking external validity, while maintaining strong finite sample performance.
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The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.
| Reference | Intensity | Mentions | Sections | Main text | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Thompson, W. R (1933) On the likelihood that one unknown probability exceeds another in view of the evidence of two samples | 0.511 | 2 | 2 | 50% |
| 2 | Karlan, D. and List, J. A (2007) Does price matter in charitable giving? evidence from a large-scale natural field experiment | 0.511 | 2 | 1 | 100% |
| 3 | Karlan, D. and List, J. A (2020) How can bill and melinda gates increase other people's donations to fund public goods? | 0.511 | 2 | 1 | 100% |
| 4 | Agrawal, S. and Goyal, N (2017) Near-optimal regret bounds for thompson sampling | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 5 | Athey, S. and Imbens, G (2019) Machine learning methods economists should know about | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 6 | Bisbee, J., Dehejia, R., Pop-Eleches, C., and Samii, C (2017) Local instruments, global extrapolation: External validity of the labor supply–fertility local average treatment effect | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 7 | Buchanan, A. L., Hudgens, M. G., Cole, S. R., Mollan, K. R., Sax, P.… (2018) Generalizing evidence from randomized trials using inverse probability of sampling weights | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 8 | Dehejia, R., Pop-Eleches, C., and Samii, C (2021) From local to global: External validity in a fertility natural experiment | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 9 | DellaVigna, S. and Pope, D (2018) Predicting experimental results: Who knows what? | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 10 | DellaVigna, S., Otis, N., and Vivalt, E (2020) Forecasting the results of experiments: Piloting an elicitation strategy | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
Showing the top 10 of 34 scored citations.
arXiv econ.EM papers that cite this one, ranked by how heavily they lean on it.
| Citing paper | Intensity | Mentions | Sections | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Continuous time asymptotic representations for adaptive experiments | 0.405 | 1 | 1 |
| 2 | 0.5 in Using Prior Studies to Design Experiments: An Empirical Bayes Approach | 0.405 | 1 | 1 |