EconBase
← All papers

A Bayesian take on option pricing with Gaussian processes

Martin Tegner, Stephen Roberts

arXiv 7 Dec 2021 · Finance — Mathematical Finance

arXiv:2112.03718 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

Local volatility is a versatile option pricing model due to its state dependent diffusion coefficient. Calibration is, however, non-trivial as it involves both proposing a hypothesis model of the latent function and a method for fitting it to data. In this paper we present novel Bayesian inference with Gaussian process priors. We obtain a rich representation of the local volatility function with a probabilistic notion of uncertainty attached to the calibrate. We propose an inference algorithm and apply our approach to S&P 500 market data.

Citation extraction

26
references
36
in-text mentions
26
distinct cited
0
self-citations
5,567
main-text words

appendix boundary found by none_found · 100% of the source is main text. Read the extracted text to check this.

Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1B. S. Hamida and R. Cont (2005) Recovering volatility from option prices by evolutionary optimization0.92843100%
2A. Gupta and C. Reisinger (2014) Robust calibration of financial models using Bayesian estimators0.73732100%
3N. Jackson, E. Süli, and S. Howison (1999) Computation of deterministic volatility surfaces0.73732100%
4B. Dupire (1994) Pricing with a smile0.51121100%
5I. Murray and R. P. Adams (2010) Slice sampling covariance hyperparameters of latent Gaussian models0.51121100%
6C. E. Rasmussen and C. K. Williams (2006) Gaussian processes for machine learning, volume 10.51121100%
7R. Trangucci, M. Betancourt, and A. Vehtari (2016) Prior formulation for Gaussian process hyperparameters0.40511100%
8T. Björk (2009) Arbitrage Theory in Continuous Time0.40511100%
9G. Brunick and S. Shreve (2013) Mimicking an Itô process by a solution of a stochastic differential equation0.40511100%
10P. Carr and D. B. Madan (2005) A note on sufficient conditions for no arbitrage0.40511100%

Showing the top 10 of 26 scored citations.