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Abductive Inference and C. S. Peirce: 150 Years Later

Deep Mukhopadhyay

arXiv 15 Nov 2021 · Econometrics · publishedJournal of Quantitative Economics (2022) · 1 citations (OpenAlex)

arXiv:2111.08054 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

This paper is about two things: (i) Charles Sanders Peirce (1837-1914) -- an iconoclastic philosopher and polymath who is among the greatest of American minds. (ii) Abductive inference -- a term coined by C. S. Peirce, which he defined as "the process of forming explanatory hypotheses. It is the only logical operation which introduces any new idea." Abductive inference and quantitative economics: Abductive inference plays a fundamental role in empirical scientific research as a tool for discovery and data analysis. Heckman and Singer (2017) strongly advocated "Economists should abduct." Arnold Zellner (2007) stressed that "much greater emphasis on reductive [abductive] inference in teaching econometrics, statistics, and economics would be desirable." But currently, there are no established theory or practical tools that can allow an empirical analyst to abduct. This paper attempts to fill this gap by introducing new principles and concrete procedures to the Economics and Statistics community. I termed the proposed approach as Abductive Inference Machine (AIM). The historical Peirce's experiment: In 1872, Peirce conducted a series of experiments to determine the distribution of response times to an auditory stimulus, which is widely regarded as one of the most significant statistical investigations in the history of nineteenth-century American mathematical research (Stigler, 1978). On the 150th anniversary of this historical experiment, we look back at the Peircean-style abductive inference through a modern statistical lens. Using Peirce's data, it is shown how empirical analysts can abduct in a systematic and automated manner using AIM.

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37
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Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Heckman, J. J. and B. Singer (2017) Abducting economics0.64422100%
2Mukhopadhyay, S (2017) Large-scale mode identification and data-driven sciences0.51121100%
3Haavelmo, T (1944) The probability approach in econometrics0.51121100%
4Peirce, C. S (1873) On the theory of errors of observation0.51121100%
5Wilson, E. B. and M. M. Hilferty (1929) Note on C. \,S.\, Peirce's experimental discussion of the law of errors0.51121100%
6Mukhopadhyay, S. and E. Parzen (2020) Nonparametric universal copula modeling0.40511100%
7Mukhopadhyay, S (2022) A maximum entropy copula model for mixed data: Representation, estimation, and applications0.40511100%
8Mukhopadhyay, S (2022) Modelplasticity and abductive decision making0.40511100%
9Bailey, D. C (2017) Not normal: the uncertainties of scientific measurements0.40511100%
10Box, G. E (1976) Science and Statistics0.40511100%

Showing the top 10 of 37 scored citations.