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Multiple-index Nonstationary Time Series Models: Robust Estimation Theory and Practice

Chaohua Dong, Jiti Gao, Bin Peng, Yundong Tu

arXiv 3 Nov 2021 · Econometrics

arXiv:2111.02023 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

This paper proposes a class of parametric multiple-index time series models that involve linear combinations of time trends, stationary variables and unit root processes as regressors. The inclusion of the three different types of time series, along with the use of a multiple-index structure for these variables to circumvent the curse of dimensionality, is due to both theoretical and practical considerations. The M-type estimators (including OLS, LAD, Huber's estimator, quantile and expectile estimators, etc.) for the index vectors are proposed, and their asymptotic properties are established, with the aid of the generalized function approach to accommodate a wide class of loss functions that may not be necessarily differentiable at every point. The proposed multiple-index model is then applied to study the stock return predictability, which reveals strong nonlinear predictability under various loss measures. Monte Carlo simulations are also included to evaluate the finite-sample performance of the proposed estimators.

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47
references
106
in-text mentions
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distinct cited
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self-citations
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appendix boundary found by appendix_titled_section at “Appendix A: Preliminaries on generalized functions” · 49% of the source is main text. Read the extracted text to check this.

Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Dong, C., Gao, J., and Tjstheim, D (2016) Estimation for single-index and partially linear single-index integrated models self0.9619489%
2Park, J. Y. and Phillips, P. C. B (2001) Nonlinear regression with integreted time series0.9568388%
3Phillips, P. C. B (1995) Robust nonstationary regression0.8947571%
4Koenker, R. and Bassett, G (1978) Regression quantiles0.73732100%
5Xiao, Z (2009) Quantile cointegrating regression0.73732100%
6Kanwal, R. P (1983) Generalized Fuctions: Theory and Technique0.7218338%
7Tu, Y., Liang, H. Y., and Wang, Q (2021) Nonparametric inference for quantile cointegrations with stationary covariates self0.64441100%
8Phillips, P. C. B (1991) A shortcut to LAD estimator asymptotics0.64422100%
9Kasparis, I., Andreou, E., and Phillips, P (2015) Nonparametric predictive regression0.58531100%
10Lee, J. H (2016) Predictive quantile regression with persistent covariates: Ivx-qr approach0.58531100%

Showing the top 10 of 47 scored citations.