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Double Machine Learning and Automated Confounder Selection -- A Cautionary Tale

Paul Hünermund, Beyers Louw, Itamar Caspi

arXiv 25 Aug 2021 · Econometrics · publishedJournal of Causal Inference (2023) · 23 citations (OpenAlex)

arXiv:2108.11294 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

Double machine learning (DML) has become an increasingly popular tool for automated variable selection in high-dimensional settings. Even though the ability to deal with a large number of potential covariates can render selection-on-observables assumptions more plausible, there is at the same time a growing risk that endogenous variables are included, which would lead to the violation of conditional independence. This paper demonstrates that DML is very sensitive to the inclusion of only a few "bad controls" in the covariate space. The resulting bias varies with the nature of the theoretical causal model, which raises concerns about the feasibility of selecting control variables in a data-driven way.

Citation extraction

45
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Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Belloni, A., V. Chernozhukov, and C. Hansen (2014) Inference on treatment effects after selection among high-dimensional controls0.87452100%
2Blau, F. D. and L. M. Kahn (2017) The gender wage gap: Extent, trends, and explanations0.87452100%
3Chernozhukov, V., D. Chetverikov, M. Demirer, E. Duflo, C. Hansen, W… (2018) Double/debiased machine learning for treatment and structural parameters0.81142100%
4Cinelli, C., A. Forney, and J. Pearl (2022) A crash course in good and bad controls0.73732100%
5Pearl, J (1995) Causal diagrams for empirical research0.73732100%
6Pearl, J (2009) Causality: Models, Reasoning, and Inference\/ (2nd ed.)0.69351100%
7Bareinboim, E., J. D. Correa, D. Ibeling, and T. Icard (2022, Februa… (2022) On pearl’s hierarchy and the foundations of causal inference0.64422100%
8Hünermund, P. and E. Bareinboim (2023) Causal inference and data fusion in econometrics0.58531100%
9Vanneste, B. S. and R. Gulati (2021) Generalized trust, external sourcing, and firm performance in economic downturns0.58531100%
10Angrist, J. D. and B. Frandsen (2022) Machine labor0.51121100%

Showing the top 10 of 45 scored citations.

Cited by, within the corpus

arXiv econ.EM papers that cite this one, ranked by how heavily they lean on it.

Citing paperIntensityMentionsSections
1On the Nuisance of Control Variables in Causal Regression Analysis0.40511
2Estimating Causal Effects with Double Machine Learning - A Method Evaluation0.40511
3Policy Learning with Observational Data : The Case of Hepatitis C Treatment for HIV/HCV Co-Infected Patients0.40511