Piergiorgio Alessandri, Haroon Mumtaz
arXiv 21 Jul 2021 · Finance — General · 20 citations (OpenAlex)
arXiv:2108.01617 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text
We study the impact of climate volatility on economic growth exploiting data on 133 countries between 1960 and 2019. We show that the conditional (ex ante) volatility of annual temperatures increased steadily over time, rendering climate conditions less predictable across countries, with important implications for growth. Controlling for concomitant changes in temperatures, a +1 degree C increase in temperature volatility causes on average a 0.3 percent decline in GDP growth and a 0.7 percent increase in the volatility of GDP. Unlike changes in average temperatures, changes in temperature volatility affect both rich and poor countries.
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The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.
| Reference | Intensity | Mentions | Sections | Main text | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dell, M., B. F. Jones, and B. A. Olken (2014) What do we learn from the weather? the new climate-economy literature | 1.000 | 5 | 3 | 100% |
| 2 | Dell, M., B. F. Jones, and B. A. Olken (2012, July) (2012) Temperature shocks and economic growth: Evidence from the last half century | 0.843 | 3 | 3 | 100% |
| 3 | Donadelli, M., M. Jüppner, A. Paradiso, and C. Schlag (2020) Computing macro-effects and welfare costs of temperature volatility: A structural approach | 0.737 | 3 | 2 | 100% |
| 4 | Kotz, M., L. Wenz, A. Stechemesser, M. Kalkuhl, and A. Levermann (2021) Day-to-day temperature variability reduces economic growth | 0.737 | 3 | 2 | 100% |
| linsenmeier2021 | unmatched citation key linsenmeier2021 | 0.737 | 3 | 2 | 100% |
| 6 | Bloom, N (2014) Fluctuations in uncertainty | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 7 | Barreca, A., K. Clay, O. Deschenes, M. Greenstone, and J. S. Shapiro (2016) Adapting to climate change: The remarkable decline in the us temperature-mortality relationship over the twentieth century | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 8 | Basu, S. and B. Bundick (2017) Uncertainty shocks in a model of effective demand | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 9 | Burke, M., S. M. Hsiang, and E. Miguel (2015) Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 10 | Deschênes, O. and M. Greenstone (2011) Climate change, mortality, and adaptation: Evidence from annual fluctuations in weather in the us | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
Showing the top 10 of 48 scored citations. 1 of these could not be matched to a bibliography entry, so only the citation key is shown.