Ali B. Barlas, Seda Guler Mert, Berk Orkun Isa, Alvaro Ortiz, Tomasa Rodrigo, Baris Soybilgen, Ege Yazgan
arXiv 5 Jul 2021 · Econometrics · 1 citations (OpenAlex)
arXiv:2107.03299 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text
We use the aggregate information from individual-to-firm and firm-to-firm in Garanti BBVA Bank transactions to mimic domestic private demand. Particularly, we replicate the quarterly national accounts aggregate consumption and investment (gross fixed capital formation) and its bigger components (Machinery and Equipment and Construction) in real time for the case of Turkey. In order to validate the usefulness of the information derived from these indicators we test the nowcasting ability of both indicators to nowcast the Turkish GDP using different nowcasting models. The results are successful and confirm the usefulness of Consumption and Investment Banking transactions for nowcasting purposes. The value of the Big data information is more relevant at the beginning of the nowcasting process, when the traditional hard data information is scarce. This makes this information specially relevant for those countries where statistical release lags are longer like the Emerging Markets.
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| Reference | Intensity | Mentions | Sections | Main text | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barlas, A. B., S. Güler, A. Ortiz, and T. Rodrigo (2020) Investment in real time and High definition: A Big data Approach self | 0.811 | 4 | 2 | 100% |
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| 3 | Chetty, R., J. Friedman, N. Hendren, M. Stepner, and T. O. I. Team (2020) How did covid-19 and stabilization policies affect spending and employment? a new real-time economic tracker based on private se… | 0.737 | 3 | 2 | 100% |
| 4 | Andersen, A. L., E. T. Hansen, N. Johannesen, and A. Sheridan (2020) Consumer responses to the covid-19 crisis: Evidence from bank account transaction data | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 5 | Ankargren, S. and Y. Yang (2019) Mixed-frequency bayesian var models in r: the mfbvar package | 0.585 | 3 | 1 | 100% |
| Hansen | unmatched citation key Hansen | 0.585 | 3 | 1 | 100% |
| 7 | Soybilgen, B. and E. Yazgan (2021) Nowcasting us gdp using tree-based ensemble models and dynamic factors self | 0.585 | 3 | 1 | 100% |
| Baker | unmatched citation key Baker | 0.511 | 2 | 1 | 100% |
| 9 | Bańbura, M. and M. Modugno (2014) Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Factor Models on Datasets with Arbitrary Pattern of Missing Data | 0.511 | 2 | 1 | 100% |
| Carvalho | unmatched citation key Carvalho | 0.511 | 2 | 1 | 100% |
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