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Learning Treatment Effects in Panels with General Intervention Patterns

Vivek F. Farias, Andrew A. Li, Tianyi Peng

arXiv 5 Jun 2021 · Statistics — Machine Learning · 5 citations (OpenAlex)

arXiv:2106.02780 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

The problem of causal inference with panel data is a central econometric question. The following is a fundamental version of this problem: Let $M^*$ be a low rank matrix and $E$ be a zero-mean noise matrix. For a `treatment' matrix $Z$ with entries in ${0,1}$ we observe the matrix $O$ with entries $O_{ij} := M^*_{ij} + E_{ij} + \mathcal{T}_{ij} Z_{ij}$ where $\mathcal{T}_{ij} $ are unknown, heterogenous treatment effects. The problem requires we estimate the average treatment effect $\tau^* := \sum_{ij} \mathcal{T}_{ij} Z_{ij} / \sum_{ij} Z_{ij}$. The synthetic control paradigm provides an approach to estimating $\tau^*$ when $Z$ places support on a single row. This paper extends that framework to allow rate-optimal recovery of $\tau^*$ for general $Z$, thus broadly expanding its applicability. Our guarantees are the first of their type in this general setting. Computational experiments on synthetic and real-world data show a substantial advantage over competing estimators.

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Cited by, within the corpus

arXiv econ.EM papers that cite this one, ranked by how heavily they lean on it.

Citing paperIntensityMentionsSections
1Heterogeneous Treatment Effects in Panel Data0.928256
2Inference for Low-rank Completion without Sample Splitting with Application to Treatment Effect Estimation0.40511
32401.136650.40511