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Predictive Quantile Regression with Mixed Roots and Increasing Dimensions: The ALQR Approach

Rui Fan, Ji Hyung Lee, Youngki Shin

arXiv 27 Jan 2021 · Econometrics · publishedJournal of Econometrics (2023) · 5 citations (OpenAlex)

arXiv:2101.11568 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

In this paper we propose the adaptive lasso for predictive quantile regression (ALQR). Reflecting empirical findings, we allow predictors to have various degrees of persistence and exhibit different signal strengths. The number of predictors is allowed to grow with the sample size. We study regularity conditions under which stationary, local unit root, and cointegrated predictors are present simultaneously. We next show the convergence rates, model selection consistency, and asymptotic distributions of ALQR. We apply the proposed method to the out-of-sample quantile prediction problem of stock returns and find that it outperforms the existing alternatives. We also provide numerical evidence from additional Monte Carlo experiments, supporting the theoretical results.

Citation extraction

65
references
101
in-text mentions
65
distinct cited
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self-citations
12,962
main-text words

appendix boundary found by appendix_titled_section at “Appendix” · 47% of the source is main text. Read the extracted text to check this.

Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Zou, H (2006) The adaptive lasso and its oracle properties0.92843100%
2Lu, X. and L. Su (2015) Jackknife model averaging for quantile regressions0.8746467%
3Koenker, R (2005) Quantile Regression0.7373367%
4Fan, R. and J. H. Lee (2019) Predictive quantile regressions under persistence and conditional heteroskedasticity self0.73732100%
5Koo, B., H. M. Anderson, M. H. Seo, and W. Yao (2020) High-dimensional predictive regression in the presence of cointegration0.73732100%
6Lee, J. H., Z. Shi, and Z. Gao (2021) On lasso for predictive regression self0.73732100%
7Zheng, Q., L. Peng, and X. He (2015) Globally adaptive quantile regression with ultra-high dimensional data0.73732100%
8Welch, I. and A. Goyal (2008) A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium prediction0.69351100%
9Withers, C (1981) Conditions for linear processes to be strong-mixing0.6444250%
10Ruppert, D. and R. J. Carroll (1980) Trimmed least squares estimation in the linear model0.6443267%

Showing the top 10 of 65 scored citations.

Cited by, within the corpus

arXiv econ.EM papers that cite this one, ranked by how heavily they lean on it.

Citing paperIntensityMentionsSections
1Persistence-Robust Break Detection in Predictive CoVaR Regressions0.51122
2On LASSO for High Dimensional Predictive Regression0.40511
3High Dimensional Time Series Regression Models: Applications to Statistical Learning Methods0.40511
4Self-Normalized Inference in (Quantile, Expected Shortfall) Regressions for Time Series0.40511