Francis X. Diebold, Maximilian Gobel
arXiv 25 Jan 2021 · Econometrics · publishedEconomics Letters (2022) · 4 citations (OpenAlex)
arXiv:2101.10359 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text
We propose a reduced-form benchmark predictive model (BPM) for fixed-target forecasting of Arctic sea ice extent, and we provide a case study of its real-time performance for target date September 2020. We visually detail the evolution of the statistically-optimal point, interval, and density forecasts as time passes, new information arrives, and the end of September approaches. Comparison to the BPM may prove useful for evaluating and selecting among various more sophisticated dynamical sea ice models, which are widely used to quantify the likely future evolution of Arctic conditions and their two-way interaction with economic activity.
appendix boundary found by none_found · 100% of the source is main text. Read the extracted text to check this.
The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.
| Reference | Intensity | Mentions | Sections | Main text | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Diebold, Göbel, and Goulet Coulombe (2022) Assessing and Comparing Fixed-Target Forecasts of Arctic Sea Ice: RMSE and Skill Score Glide Charts, Manuscript in progress | 0.843 | 3 | 3 | 100% |
| 2 | Diebold and Rudebusch (2022) Probability Assessments of an Ice-Free Arctic: Comparing Statistical and Climate Model Projections, Journal of Econometrics\/, i… | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 3 | Efron (1979) Bootstrap Methods: Another Look at the Jackknife, Annals of Statistics\/, 7, 1–26 | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 4 | Fetterer, Knowles, Meier, Savoie, and Windnagel (2017) Sea Ice Index, Version 3, Dataset ID G02135, Boulder, Colorado, USA | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 5 | Hamilton (2020) 1000 Predictions: What's New and What's Old in a Retrospective Analysis of the Sea Ice Outlook, 2008-2020, Presentation at Ameri… | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 6 | Hamilton and Stroeve (2016) 400 Predictions: the SEARCH Sea Ice Outlook 2008-2015, Polar Geography\/, 39, 274–287 | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 7 | Ing (2003) Multistep Prediction in Autoregressive Processes, Econometric Theory\/, 19, 254–279 | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 8 | Meier, Bhatt, Walsh, Thoman, Bieniek, Bitz, Blanchard-Wrigglesworth,… (2021) 2020 Sea Ice Outlook Post-Season Report | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 9 | Stroeve, Hamilton, Bitz, and Blanchard-Wrigglesworth (2014) Predicting September Sea Ice: Ensemble Skill of the SEARCH Sea Ice Outlook 2008–2013, Geophysical Research Letters\/, 41, 2411–2… | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 10 | Goulet Coulombe and Göbel (2021) Arctic Amplification of Anthropogenic Forcing: A Vector Autoregressive Analysis, Journal of Climate\/, 5523–5541, https://doi.or… | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
Showing the top 10 of 11 scored citations.
arXiv econ.EM papers that cite this one, ranked by how heavily they lean on it.
| Citing paper | Intensity | Mentions | Sections | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Prediction intervals for economic fixed-event forecasts | 0.405 | 1 | 1 |