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Bayesian analysis of seasonally cointegrated VAR model

Justyna Wróblewska

arXiv 29 Dec 2020 · Econometrics · publishedEconometrics and Statistics (2023) · 2 citations (OpenAlex)

arXiv:2012.14820 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

The paper aims at developing the Bayesian seasonally cointegrated model for quarterly data. We propose the prior structure, derive the set of full conditional posterior distributions, and propose the sampling scheme. The identification of cointegrating spaces is obtained via orthonormality restrictions imposed on vectors spanning them. In the case of annual frequency, the cointegrating vectors are complex, which should be taken into account when identifying them. The point estimation of the cointegrating spaces is also discussed. The presented methods are illustrated by a simulation experiment and are employed in the analysis of money and prices in the Polish economy.

Citation extraction

36
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appendix boundary found by appendix_titled_section at “Appendix - the Bayesian model comparison” · 91% of the source is main text. Read the extracted text to check this.

Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Cubadda, G., Omtzigt, P (2005) Small-sample improvements in the statistical analysis of seasonally cointegrated systems0.92843100%
2Kotlowski, J (2005) Money and prices in the Polish economy0.87452100%
3Johansen, S., Schaumburg, E (1999) Likelihood analysis of seasonal cointegration0.81142100%
4Hylleberg, S., Engle, R. F., Granger, C. W. J., Yoo, B. S (1990) Seasonal integration and cointegration0.73732100%
5Koop, G., León-González, R., Strachan, R. W (2009) Efficient posterior simulation for cointegrated models with priors on the cointegration space0.64441100%
6Chikuse, Y (2003) Statistics on special manifolds0.64422100%
7Villani, M (2006) Bayesian point estimation of the cointegration space0.58531100%
8Abeysinghe, T (1994) Deterministic seasonal models and spurious regressions0.40511100%
9Chern, S. S., Wolfson, J. G (1987) Harmonic maps of the two-sphere into a complex Grassmann manifold II0.40511100%
10Chikuse, Y (1990) The matrix angular central Gaussian distribution0.40511100%

Showing the top 10 of 32 scored citations.

Cited by, within the corpus

arXiv econ.EM papers that cite this one, ranked by how heavily they lean on it.

Citing paperIntensityMentionsSections
1Identification of structural shocks in Bayesian VEC models with two-state Markov-switching heteroskedasticity0.00011