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Machine Learning Advances for Time Series Forecasting

Ricardo P. Masini, Marcelo C. Medeiros, Eduardo F. Mendes

arXiv 23 Dec 2020 · Econometrics · publishedJournal of Economic Surveys (2021) · 49 citations (OpenAlex)

arXiv:2012.12802 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

In this paper we survey the most recent advances in supervised machine learning and high-dimensional models for time series forecasting. We consider both linear and nonlinear alternatives. Among the linear methods we pay special attention to penalized regressions and ensemble of models. The nonlinear methods considered in the paper include shallow and deep neural networks, in their feed-forward and recurrent versions, and tree-based methods, such as random forests and boosted trees. We also consider ensemble and hybrid models by combining ingredients from different alternatives. Tests for superior predictive ability are briefly reviewed. Finally, we discuss application of machine learning in economics and finance and provide an illustration with high-frequency financial data.

Citation extraction

157
references
494
in-text mentions
380
distinct cited
9
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19,623
main-text words

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Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Chen, X (2007) Large sample sieve estimation of semi-nonparametric models1.00063100%
2Belloni, A., V. Chernozhukov, and C. Hansen (2014) Inference on treatment effects after selection amongst high-dimensional controls0.87462100%
3Medeiros, M. C., G. Vasconcelos, A. Veiga, and E. Zilberman (2021) Forecasting inflation in a data-rich environment: The benefits of machine learning methods self0.87452100%
4Elliott, G., A. Gargano, and A. Timmermann (2013) Complete subset regressions0.84333100%
5Garcia, M., M. Medeiros, and G. Vasconcelos (2017) Real-time inflation forecasting with high-dimensional models: The case of brazil0.73732100%
Medeirosunmatched citation key Medeiros0.69351100%
Tibshiraniunmatched citation key Tibshirani0.69351100%
Hansenunmatched citation key Hansen0.64441100%
9van de Geer, S., P. Bühlmann, Y. Ritov, and R. Dezeure (2014) On asymptotically optimal confidence regions and tests for high-dimensional models0.64441100%
10Babii, A., E. Ghysels, and J. Striaukas (2020) Machine learning time series regressions with an application to nowcasting0.64422100%

Showing the top 10 of 380 scored citations. 3 of these could not be matched to a bibliography entry, so only the citation key is shown.

Cited by, within the corpus

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Citing paperIntensityMentionsSections
1Modeling and Forecasting Intraday Market Returns: a Machine Learning Approach0.64422
22107.125520.40511
3Forecasting US Inflation Using Bayesian Nonparametric Models0.40511
4Econometrics of Machine Learning Methods in Economic Forecasting0.40511
5Extending the Scope of Inference About Predictive Ability to Machine Learning Methods0.40511
6Semiparametric inference for impulse response functions using double/debiased machine learning0.40511
7Balancing Flexibility and Interpretability: A Conditional Linear Model Estimation via Random Forest0.40511
82512.020920.40511
9From Many Models, One: Macroeconomic Forecasting with Reservoir Ensembles0.40511
10Sparse Tree-Based Aggregation for Time Series Regressions0.40511