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Causal motifs and existence of endogenous cascades in directed networks with application to company defaults

Irena Barjašić, Hrvoje Štefančić, Vedrana Pribičević, Vinko Zlatić

arXiv 16 Nov 2020 · physics.soc-ph · publishedScientific Reports (2021) · 2 citations (OpenAlex)

arXiv:2011.08148 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

Motivated by the detection of cascades of defaults in economy, we developed a detection framework for an endogenous spreading based on causal motifs we define in this paper. We assume that the change of state of a vertex can be triggered by an endogenous or an exogenous event, that the underlying network is directed and that times when vertices changed their states are available. In addition to the data of company defaults, we also simulate cascades driven by different stochastic processes on different synthetic networks. We show that some of the smallest motifs can robustly detect endogenous spreading events. Finally, we apply the method to the data of defaults of Croatian companies and observe the time window in which an endogenous cascade was likely happening.

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Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Barjasić, I., Stefancić, H., Pribicević, V. & Zlatić, V Supplementary information0.84333100%
2Milo, R. et al (2002) Network motifs: simple building blocks of complex networks0.73732100%
3Newman, M. E., Barabási, A.-L. E. & Watts, D. J (2006) The structure and dynamics of networks0.73732100%
4Kosćak, S. et al (2015) Hub think tank broj 3: Arhitektura mreze dugovanja hrvatskih tvrtki0.64422100%
5Gauvin, L. et al (1806) Randomized reference models for temporal networks0.64422100%
6Kiss, I. Z., Miller, J. C., Simon, P. L. et al (2017) Mathematics of epidemics on networks0.64422100%
7Battiston, S., Gatti, D. D., Gallegati, M., Greenwald, B. & Stiglitz… (2012) Default cascades: When does risk diversification increase stability?0.51121100%
8Brummitt, C. D. & Kobayashi, T (2015) Cascades in multiplex financial networks with debts of different seniority0.51121100%
9Gai, P. & Kapadia, S (2010) Contagion in financial networks0.51121100%
10Acemoglu, D., Carvalho, V. M., Ozdaglar, A. & Tahbaz-Salehi, A (1977) The network origins of aggregate fluctuations0.40511100%

Showing the top 10 of 52 scored citations.