arXiv 8 Nov 2020 · Statistics — Applications · publishedStatistics in Medicine (2024) · 1 citations (OpenAlex)
arXiv:2011.04002 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text
Superspreading complicates the study of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. I propose a model for aggregated case data that accounts for superspreading and improves statistical inference. In a Bayesian framework, the model is estimated on German data featuring over 60,000 cases with date of symptom onset and age group. Several factors were associated with a strong reduction in transmission: public awareness rising, testing and tracing, information on local incidence, and high temperature. Immunity after infection, school and restaurant closures, stay-at-home orders, and mandatory face covering were associated with a smaller reduction in transmission. The data suggests that public distancing rules increased transmission in young adults. Information on local incidence was associated with a reduction in transmission of up to 44% (95%-CI: [40%, 48%]), which suggests a prominent role of behavioral adaptations to local risk of infection. Testing and tracing reduced transmission by 15% (95%-CI: [9%,20%]), where the effect was strongest among the elderly. Extrapolating weather effects, I estimate that transmission increases by 53% (95%-CI: [43%, 64%]) in colder seasons.
appendix boundary found by none_found · 100% of the source is main text. Read the extracted text to check this.
The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.
| Reference | Intensity | Mentions | Sections | Main text | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Victor Chernozhukov, Hiroyuki Kasahara, and Paul Schrimpf (2020) Causal impact of masks, policies, behavior on early covid-19 pandemic in the u.s | 0.693 | 7 | 1 | 100% |
| 2 | Seth Flaxman, Swapnil Mishra, Axel Gandy, H Juliette T Unwin, Thomas… (2020) Estimating the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in Europe | 0.693 | 5 | 1 | 100% |
| 3 | Colin J Carlson, Ana CR Gomez, Shweta Bansal, and Sadie J Ryan (2020) Misconceptions about weather and seasonality must not misguide COVID-19 response | 0.585 | 3 | 1 | 100% |
| 4 | Solomon Hsiang, Daniel Allen, Sébastien Annan-Phan, Kendon Bell, Ian… (2020) The effect of large-scale anti-contagion policies on the covid-19 pandemic | 0.585 | 3 | 1 | 100% |
| 5 | Andrew T Levin, Kensington B Cochran, and Seamus P Walsh (2020) Assessing the age specificity of infection fatality rates for Covid-19: Meta-analysis & public policy implications | 0.585 | 3 | 1 | 100% |
| 6 | James O Lloyd-Smith, Sebastian J Schreiber, P Ekkehard Kopp, and Way… (2005) Superspreading and the effect of individual variation on disease emergence | 0.585 | 3 | 1 | 100% |
| 7 | Henrik Salje, Cécile Tran Kiem, Noémie Lefrancq, Noémie Courtejoie,… (2020) Estimating the burden of SARS-CoV-2 in France | 0.585 | 3 | 1 | 100% |
| 8 | Rachel E Baker, Wenchang Yang, Gabriel A Vecchi, C Jessica E Metcalf… (2020) Susceptible supply limits the role of climate in the early SARS-CoV-2 pandemic | 0.511 | 2 | 1 | 100% |
| 9 | Jonas Dehning, Johannes Zierenberg, F Paul Spitzner, Michael Wibral,… (2020) Inferring change points in the spread of COVID-19 reveals the effectiveness of interventions | 0.511 | 2 | 1 | 100% |
| 10 | Shiv T Sehra, Justin D Salciccioli, Douglas J Wiebe, Shelby Fundin,… (2020) Maximum daily temperature, precipitation, ultra-violet light and rates of transmission of SARS-Cov-2 in the United States | 0.511 | 2 | 1 | 100% |
Showing the top 10 of 31 scored citations.