Zhaowei She, Zilong Wang, Turgay Ayer, Asmae Toumi, Jagpreet Chhatwal
arXiv 31 Oct 2020 · Machine Learning · 3 citations (OpenAlex)
arXiv:2011.01219 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text
Rapid and accurate detection of community outbreaks is critical to address the threat of resurgent waves of COVID-19. A practical challenge in outbreak detection is balancing accuracy vs. speed. In particular, while estimation accuracy improves with longer fitting windows, speed degrades. This paper presents a machine learning framework to balance this tradeoff using generalized random forests (GRF), and applies it to detect county level COVID-19 outbreaks. This algorithm chooses an adaptive fitting window size for each county based on relevant features affecting the disease spread, such as changes in social distancing policies. Experiment results show that our method outperforms any non-adaptive window size choices in 7-day ahead COVID-19 outbreak case number predictions.
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The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.
| Reference | Intensity | Mentions | Sections | Main text | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Susan Athey, Julie Tibshirani, Stefan Wager, et al (2019) Generalized random forests | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 2 | Junling Ma, Jonathan Dushoff, Benjamin M Bolker, and David JD Earn (2014) Estimating initial epidemic growth rates | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 3 | J Raifman, K Nocka, D Jones, J Bor, S Lipson, J Jay, and P Chan (2020) Covid-19 us state policy database | 0.511 | 2 | 2 | 50% |
| 4 | The University of Melbourne (2020) Coronavirus 10-day forecast | 0.511 | 2 | 2 | 50% |
| 5 | Jeffrey M Wooldridge (2010) Econometric analysis of cross section and panel data | 0.511 | 2 | 1 | 100% |
| 6 | The New York Times (2020) Coronavirus (Covid-19) Data in the United States | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 7 | Alberto Abadie (2003) Semiparametric instrumental variable estimation of treatment response models | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 8 | Joshua D Angrist and Guido W Imbens (1995) Two-stage least squares estimation of average causal effects in models with variable treatment intensity | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 9 | Gerardo Chowell, Paul W Fenimore, Melissa A Castillo-Garsow, and Car… (2003) Sars outbreaks in ontario, hong kong and singapore: the role of diagnosis and isolation as a control mechanism | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 10 | Gerardo Chowell, Hiroshi Nishiura, and Luis MA Bettencourt (2007) Comparative estimation of the reproduction number for pandemic influenza from daily case notification data | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
Showing the top 10 of 17 scored citations.