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Measures of Model Risk in Continuous-time Finance Models

Emese Lazar, Shuyuan Qi, Radu Tunaru

arXiv 16 Oct 2020 · Econometrics · publishedJournal of Financial Econometrics (2024) · 3 citations (OpenAlex)

arXiv:2010.08113 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

Measuring model risk is required by regulators on financial and insurance markets. We separate model risk into parameter estimation risk and model specification risk, and we propose expected shortfall type model risk measures applied to Levy jump models and affine jump-diffusion models. We investigate the impact of parameter estimation risk and model specification risk on the models' ability to capture the joint dynamics of stock and option prices. We estimate the parameters using Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques, under the risk-neutral probability measure and the real-world probability measure jointly. We find strong evidence supporting modeling of price jumps.

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Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Broadie, M., Chernov, M., Johannes, M (2007) Model specification and risk premia: Evidence from futures options1.00073100%
2Yu, C. L., Li, H., Wells, M. T (2011) MCMC estimation of Lévy jump models using stock and option prices0.97614693%
3Merton, R. C (1976) Option pricing when underlying stock returns are discontinuous0.73732100%
4Li, H., Wells, M. T., Yu, C. L (2008) A Bayesian analysis of return dynamics with Lévy jumps0.6443267%
5Eraker, B (2004) Do stock prices and volatility jump? Reconciling evidence from spot and option prices0.64422100%
6Duffie, D., Pan, J., Singleton, K (2000) Transform analysis and asset pricing for affine jump-diffusions0.58531100%
7Green, T. C., Figlewski, S (1999) Market risk and model risk for a financial institution writing options0.58531100%
8Pan, J (2002) The jump-risk premia implicit in options: Evidence from an integrated time-series study0.58531100%
9Bardgett, C., Gourier, E., Leippold, M (2019) Inferring volatility dynamics and risk premia from the S&P 500 and VIX markets0.51121100%
10Bates, D. S (2000) Post-'87 crash fears in the S&P 500 futures option market0.51121100%

Showing the top 10 of 46 scored citations.