arXiv 10 Oct 2020 · Econometrics · publishedEconometrics Journal (2022) · 2 citations (OpenAlex)
arXiv:2010.04930 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text
We prove the asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) in time-varying transition probability (TVTP) regime-switching models. This class of models extends the constant regime transition probability in Markov-switching models to a time-varying probability by including information from observations. An important feature in this proof is the mixing rate of the regime process conditional on the observations, which is time varying owing to the time-varying transition probabilities. Consistency and asymptotic normality follow from the almost deterministic geometrically decaying bound of the mixing rate. The assumptions are verified in regime-switching autoregressive models with widely-applied TVTP specifications. A simulation study examines the finite-sample distributions of the MLE and compares the estimates of the asymptotic variance constructed from the Hessian matrix and the outer product of the score. The simulation results favour the latter. As an empirical example, we compare three leading economic indicators in terms of describing U.S. industrial production.
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The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.
| Reference | Intensity | Mentions | Sections | Main text | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ailliot, P. and Pene, F (2015) Consistency of the maximum likelihood estimate for non-homogeneous Markov–switching models | 1.000 | 12 | 3 | 100% |
| 2 | Pouzo, D., Psaradakis, Z., and Sola, M (2018) Maximum Likelihood Estimation in Possibly Misspecified Dynamic Models with Time Inhomogeneous Markov Regimes | 1.000 | 12 | 3 | 100% |
| 3 | Chang, Y., Choi, Y., and Park, J. Y (2017) A new approach to model regime switching | 1.000 | 10 | 4 | 100% |
| 4 | Diebold, F. X., Lee, J.-H., and Weinbach, G. C (1994) Regime Switching with Time-Varying Transition Probabilities, in | 1.000 | 10 | 4 | 100% |
| 5 | Hamilton, J. D (1989) A new approach to the economic analysis of nonstationary time series and the business cycle | 1.000 | 7 | 5 | 100% |
| 6 | Filardo, A. J (1994) Business-cycle phases and their transitional dynamics | 1.000 | 5 | 3 | 100% |
| 7 | Kasahara, H. and Shimotsu, K (2019) Asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood estimator in regime switching econometric models | 0.935 | 11 | 5 | 82% |
| 8 | Cappé, O., Moulines, E., and Rydén, T (2005) Inference in Hidden Markov Models | 0.928 | 4 | 3 | 100% |
| 9 | Douc, R., Moulines, E., and Ryden, T (2004) Asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood estimator in autoregressive models with Markov regime | 0.763 | 9 | 4 | 44% |
| 10 | Baum, L. E. and Petrie, T (1966) Statistical inference for probabilistic functions of finite state Markov chains | 0.737 | 3 | 2 | 100% |
Showing the top 10 of 33 scored citations.
arXiv econ.EM papers that cite this one, ranked by how heavily they lean on it.
| Citing paper | Intensity | Mentions | Sections | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Multi-regime Markov-switching models with time-varying transition probabilities: An application to U.S. Treasury yields | 0.405 | 1 | 1 |