arXiv 26 Jun 2020 · Econometrics · 13 citations (OpenAlex)
arXiv:2006.15183 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text
Entering and exiting the Pandemic Recession, I study the high-frequency real-activity signals provided by a leading nowcast, the ADS Index of Business Conditions produced and released in real time by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. I track the evolution of real-time vintage beliefs and compare them to a later-vintage chronology. Real-time ADS plunges and then swings as its underlying economic indicators swing, but the ADS paths quickly converge to indicate a return to brisk positive growth by mid-May. I show, moreover, that the daily real activity path was highly correlated with the daily COVID-19 cases. Finally, I provide a comparative assessment of the real-time ADS signals provided when exiting the Great Recession.
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The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.
| Reference | Intensity | Mentions | Sections | Main text | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aruoba, Diebold, and Scotti (2009) Real-Time Measurement of Business Conditions, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics\/, 27, 417–427 | 0.511 | 2 | 1 | 100% |
| 2 | Stock and Watson (1989) New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators, In O | 0.511 | 2 | 1 | 100% |
| 3 | Aruoba and Diebold (2010) Real-Time Macroeconomic Monitoring: Real Activity, Inflation, and Interactions, American Economic Review\/, 100, 20–24 | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 4 | Burns and Mitchell (1946) Measuring Business Cycles | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 5 | Bai and Ng (2008) Forecasting Economic Time Series Using Targeted Predictors, Journal of Econometrics\/, 146, 304–317 | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 6 | Banbura, Giannone, and Reichlin (2011) Nowcasting, In M | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 7 | Boivin and Ng (2006) Are More Data Always Better for Factor Analysis? Journal of Econometrics\/, 132, 169–194 | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 8 | Doz, Giannone, and Reichlin (2012) A Quasi–Maximum Likelihood Approach for Large, Approximate Dynamic Factor Models, Review of Economics and Statistics\/, 94, 1014… | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 9 | Diebold and Rudebusch (1991) Forecasting Output with the Composite Leading Index: A Real-Time Analysis, Journal of the American Statistical Association\/, 86… | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 10 | Diebold (2020) Real-Time Real Economic Activity Entering the Pandemic Recession, Covid Economics\/, 62, 1–19 self | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
Showing the top 10 of 20 scored citations.
arXiv econ.EM papers that cite this one, ranked by how heavily they lean on it.
| Citing paper | Intensity | Mentions | Sections | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nonlinear Dynamic Factor Analysis With a Transformer Network | 0.405 | 1 | 1 |