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Measuring Macroeconomic Uncertainty: The Labor Channel of Uncertainty from a Cross-Country Perspective

Andreas Dibiasi, Samad Sarferaz

arXiv 16 Jun 2020 · Econometrics · 1 citations (OpenAlex)

arXiv:2006.09007 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

This paper constructs internationally consistent measures of macroeconomic uncertainty. Our econometric framework extracts uncertainty from revisions in data obtained from standardized national accounts. Applying our model to post-WWII real-time data, we estimate macroeconomic uncertainty for 39 countries. The cross-country dimension of our uncertainty data allows us to study the impact of uncertainty shocks under different employment protection legislation. Our empirical findings suggest that the effects of uncertainty shocks are stronger and more persistent in countries with low employment protection compared to countries with high employment protection. These empirical findings are in line with a theoretical model under varying firing cost.

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73
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in-text mentions
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Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1N. Bloom, M. Floetotto, N. Jaimovich, I. Saporta-Eksten, and S. J. T… (2018) Really uncertain business cycles1.000153100%
2J. P. Jacobs and S. van Norden (2011) Modeling data revisions: Measurement error and dynamics of "true" values1.00063100%
3N. Bloom (2009) The impact of uncertainty shocks0.92843100%
4S. R. Baker, N. Bloom, and S. J. Davis (2016) Measuring economic policy uncertainty0.92843100%
5K. Jurado, S. C. Ludvigson, and S. Ng (2015) Measuring uncertainty0.86723765%
6T. Berger, S. Grabert, and B. Kempa (2017) Global macroeconomic uncertainty0.81142100%
7A. Carriero, T. E. Clark, and M. Marcellino (2019) Asssessing international commonality in macroeconomic uncertainty and its effects0.81142100%
8H. Mumtaz and K. Theodoridis (2017) Common and country specific economic uncertainty0.81142100%
9C. Redl (2018) Uncertainty matters: evidence from close elections0.73732100%
10A. Z. Fernandez, H. Branch, E. F. Koenig, and A. Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy (2011) A real-time historical database for the oecd0.6443267%

Showing the top 10 of 73 scored citations.