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New robust inference for predictive regressions

Rustam Ibragimov, Jihyun Kim, Anton Skrobotov

arXiv 1 Jun 2020 · Econometrics · publishedEconometric Theory (2023) · 2 citations (OpenAlex)

arXiv:2006.01191 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

We propose two robust methods for testing hypotheses on unknown parameters of predictive regression models under heterogeneous and persistent volatility as well as endogenous, persistent and/or fat-tailed regressors and errors. The proposed robust testing approaches are applicable both in the case of discrete and continuous time models. Both of the methods use the Cauchy estimator to effectively handle the problems of endogeneity, persistence and/or fat-tailedness in regressors and errors. The difference between our two methods is how the heterogeneous volatility is controlled. The first method relies on robust t-statistic inference using group estimators of a regression parameter of interest proposed in Ibragimov and Muller, 2010. It is simple to implement, but requires the exogenous volatility assumption. To relax the exogenous volatility assumption, we propose another method which relies on the nonparametric correction of volatility. The proposed methods perform well compared with widely used alternative inference procedures in terms of their finite sample properties.

Citation extraction

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Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
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3Kim \ Meddahi (2020) Volatility regressions with fat tails0.84333100%
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6Chen \ Deo (2009) `Bias reduction and likelihood-based almost exactly sized hypothesis testing in predictive regressions using the restricted like…0.73732100%
7Phillips \ Magdalinos (2009) `Econometric inference in the vicinity of unity'0.73732100%
8Embrechts, Klüppelberg \ Mikosch (1997) Modelling Extremal Events for Insurance and Finance, Springer0.64441100%
9Phillips \ Magdalinos (2007) `Limit theory for moderate deviations from a unit root', Journal of Econometrics 136, 115–1300.64441100%
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Showing the top 10 of 66 scored citations.

Cited by, within the corpus

arXiv econ.EM papers that cite this one, ranked by how heavily they lean on it.

Citing paperIntensityMentionsSections
1Robust Cauchy-Based Methods for Predictive Regressions0.981186