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Combining Shrinkage and Sparsity in Conjugate Vector Autoregressive Models

Niko Hauzenberger, Florian Huber, Luca Onorante

arXiv 20 Feb 2020 · Econometrics · publishedJournal of Applied Econometrics (2020)

arXiv:2002.08760 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

Conjugate priors allow for fast inference in large dimensional vector autoregressive (VAR) models but, at the same time, introduce the restriction that each equation features the same set of explanatory variables. This paper proposes a straightforward means of post-processing posterior estimates of a conjugate Bayesian VAR to effectively perform equation-specific covariate selection. Compared to existing techniques using shrinkage alone, our approach combines shrinkage and sparsity in both the VAR coefficients and the error variance-covariance matrices, greatly reducing estimation uncertainty in large dimensions while maintaining computational tractability. We illustrate our approach by means of two applications. The first application uses synthetic data to investigate the properties of the model across different data-generating processes, the second application analyzes the predictive gains from sparsification in a forecasting exercise for US data.

Citation extraction

47
references
103
in-text mentions
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distinct cited
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main-text words

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Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
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2Koop GM (2013) Forecasting with Medium and Large Bayesian VARs Journal of Applied Econometrics 28(2), 177–2031.00094100%
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4Hahn PR and Carvalho CM (2015) Decoupling Shrinkage and Selection in… Journal of the American Statistical Association 110(509), 435–4481.00063100%
5Huber F, Koop G and Onorante L (2020) Inducing Sparsity and Shrinkag… Journal of Business & Economic Statistics 0(just-accepted)0.87452100%
6McCracken MW and Ng S (2016) FRED-MD: A Monthly Database for Macroec… Journal of Business & Economic Statistics 34(4), 574–5890.8434375%
7Giannone D, Lenza M and Primiceri GE (2015) Prior selection for vect… Review of Economics and Statistics 97(2), 436–4510.73732100%
8Clark TE (2011) Real-time density forecasts from Bayesian vector aut… Journal of Business & Economic Statistics 29(3), 327–3410.69361100%
9Hansen PR, Lunde A and Nason JM (2011) The model confidence set Econometrica 79(2), 453–4970.69361100%
10Carriero A, Clark TE and Marcellino M (2019) Large Bayesian vector a… Journal of Econometrics 212(1), 137–1540.64422100%

Showing the top 10 of 47 scored citations.

Cited by, within the corpus

arXiv econ.EM papers that cite this one, ranked by how heavily they lean on it.

Citing paperIntensityMentionsSections
1Dynamic Portfolio Allocation in High Dimensions using Sparse Risk Factors0.40511
2Subspace Shrinkage in Conjugate Bayesian Vector Autoregressions0.40511
3Bayesian Forecasting in Economics and Finance: A Modern Review0.40511
4Nonlinearities in Macroeconomic Tail Risk through the Lens of Big Data Quantile Regressions0.40511