Francis X. Diebold, Glenn D. Rudebusch
arXiv 23 Dec 2019 · Statistics — Applications · publishedJournal of Econometrics (2021) · 38 citations (OpenAlex)
arXiv:1912.10774 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text
The downward trend in the amount of Arctic sea ice has a wide range of environmental and economic consequences including important effects on the pace and intensity of global climate change. Based on several decades of satellite data, we provide statistical forecasts of Arctic sea ice extent during the rest of this century. The best fitting statistical model indicates that overall sea ice coverage is declining at an increasing rate. By contrast, average projections from the CMIP5 global climate models foresee a gradual slowing of Arctic sea ice loss even in scenarios with high carbon emissions. Our long-range statistical projections also deliver probability assessments of the timing of an ice-free Arctic. These results indicate almost a 60 percent chance of an effectively ice-free Arctic Ocean sometime during the 2030s -- much earlier than the average projection from the global climate models.
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The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.
| Reference | Intensity | Mentions | Sections | Main text | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Serreze and Meier (2019) The Arctic's Sea Ice Cover: Trends, Variability, Predictability, and Comparisons to the Antarctic, Annals of the New York Academ… | 1.000 | 6 | 5 | 100% |
| Stroeve2012 | unmatched citation key Stroeve2012 | 0.928 | 4 | 3 | 100% |
| 3 | Stroeve and Notz (2015) Insights on Past and Future Sea-Ice Evolution from Combining Observations and Models, Global and Planetary Change\/, 135, 119–132 | 0.928 | 4 | 3 | 100% |
| 4 | Massonnet, Fichefet, Goosse, Bitz, Philippon-Berthier, Holland, and… (2012) Constraining Projections of Summer Arctic Sea Ice, The Cryosphere\/, 6, 1383–1394 | 0.843 | 3 | 3 | 100% |
| 5 | Rosenblum and Eisenman (2017) Sea Ice Trends in Climate Models Only Accurate in Runs with Biased Global Warming, Journal of Climate\/, 30, 6265–6278 | 0.843 | 3 | 3 | 100% |
| 6 | Stroeve, Holland, Meier, Scambos, and Serreze (2007) Arctic Sea Ice Decline: Faster than Forecast, Geophysical Research Letters\/, 34, L09501, doi: 10.1029/2007GL029703 | 0.843 | 3 | 3 | 100% |
| 7 | Jahn, Kay, Holland, and Hall (2016) How Predictable is the Timing of a Summer Ice-Free Arctic? Geophysical Research Letters\/, 43, 9113–9120 | 0.811 | 4 | 2 | 100% |
| 8 | Bauer and Rudebusch (2016) Monetary Policy Expectations at the Zero Lower Bound, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking\/, 48, 1439–1465 | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 9 | Diebold (2007) Elements of Forecasting\/, fourth edition, South-Western self | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 10 | Peng, Matthews, and Yu (2018) Sensitivity Analysis of Arctic Sea Ice Extent Trends and Statistical Projections Using Satellite Data, Remote Sensing\/, 10, 230 | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
Showing the top 10 of 54 scored citations. 1 of these could not be matched to a bibliography entry, so only the citation key is shown.
arXiv econ.EM papers that cite this one, ranked by how heavily they lean on it.
| Citing paper | Intensity | Mentions | Sections | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arctic Amplification of Anthropogenic Forcing: A Vector Autoregressive Analysis | 0.737 | 3 | 2 |
| 2 | On changepoint detection in functional data using empirical energy distance | 0.405 | 1 | 1 |