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High-Dimensional Forecasting in the Presence of Unit Roots and Cointegration

Stephan Smeekes, Etienne Wijler

arXiv 24 Nov 2019 · Econometrics · 2 citations (OpenAlex)

arXiv:1911.10552 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

We investigate how the possible presence of unit roots and cointegration affects forecasting with Big Data. As most macroeoconomic time series are very persistent and may contain unit roots, a proper handling of unit roots and cointegration is of paramount importance for macroeconomic forecasting. The high-dimensional nature of Big Data complicates the analysis of unit roots and cointegration in two ways. First, transformations to stationarity require performing many unit root tests, increasing room for errors in the classification. Second, modelling unit roots and cointegration directly is more difficult, as standard high-dimensional techniques such as factor models and penalized regression are not directly applicable to (co)integrated data and need to be adapted. We provide an overview of both issues and review methods proposed to address these issues. These methods are also illustrated with two empirical applications.

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Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Johansen, S (1995) Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models1.00064100%
2Smeekes, S. and E. Wijler (2018) Macroeconomic forecasting using penalized regression methods self0.92843100%
3Banerjee, A., M. Marcellino, and I. Masten (2014) Forecasting with factor-augmented error correction models0.87482100%
4Liang, C. and M. Schienle (2019) Determination of vector error correction models in high dimensions0.87472100%
5Smeekes, S (2015) Bootstrap sequential tests to determine the order of integration of individual units in a time series panel self0.87472100%
6Smeekes, S. and E. Wijler (2018) An automated approach towards sparse single-equation cointegration modelling self0.87472100%
7Barigozzi, M., M. Lippi, and M. Luciani (2017) Dynamic factor models, cointegration, and error correction mechanisms0.87452100%
8Barigozzi, M., M. Lippi, and M. Luciani (2018) Non-stationary dynamic factor models for large datasets0.87452100%
9Bai, J (2004) Estimating cross-section common stochastic trends in nonstationary panel data0.87452100%
10Wilms, I. and C. Croux (2016) Forecasting using sparse cointegration0.87452100%

Showing the top 10 of 176 scored citations.