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Bayesian state-space modeling for analyzing heterogeneous network effects of US monetary policy

Niko Hauzenberger, Michael Pfarrhofer

arXiv 14 Nov 2019 · Econometrics · publishedScandinavian Journal of Economics (2021) · 1 citations (OpenAlex)

arXiv:1911.06206 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

Understanding disaggregate channels in the transmission of monetary policy is of crucial importance for effectively implementing policy measures. We extend the empirical econometric literature on the role of production networks in the propagation of shocks along two dimensions. First, we allow for industry-specific responses that vary over time, reflecting non-linearities and cross-sectional heterogeneities in direct transmission channels. Second, we allow for time-varying network structures and dependence. This feature captures both variation in the structure of the production network, but also differences in cross-industry demand elasticities. We find that impacts vary substantially over time and the cross-section. Higher-order effects appear to be particularly important in periods of economic and financial uncertainty, often coinciding with tight credit market conditions and financial stress. Differentials in industry-specific responses can be explained by how close the respective industries are to end-consumers.

Citation extraction

54
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114
in-text mentions
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main-text words

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Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Ozdagli A, and Weber M (2020) Monetary policy through production networks: Evidence from the stock market1.000153100%
2Gürkaynak RS, Sack BP, and Swanson ET (2005) Do actions speak louder than words? The response of asset prices to monetary policy actions and statements0.87492100%
3Bernanke BS, and Kuttner KN (2005) What explains the stock market's reaction to Federal Reserve policy?0.87462100%
4Chen SS (2007) Does monetary policy have asymmetric effects on stock returns?0.87452100%
5Basistha A, and Kurov A (2008) Macroeconomic cycles and the stock market's reaction to monetary policy0.81142100%
6Ehrmann M, and Fratzscher M (2004) Taking stock: Monetary policy transmission to equity markets0.73732100%
7Baker SR, Bloom N, and Davis SJ (2016) Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty0.64441100%
8Husted L, Rogers J, and Sun B (2019) Monetary policy uncertainty0.64441100%
9Frühwirth-Schnatter S, and Wagner H (2010) Stochastic model specification search for Gaussian and partial non-Gaussian state space models0.6443267%
10Kurov A (2010) Investor sentiment and the stock market's reaction to monetary policy0.64422100%

Showing the top 10 of 54 scored citations.

Cited by, within the corpus

arXiv econ.EM papers that cite this one, ranked by how heavily they lean on it.

Citing paperIntensityMentionsSections
1Interpreting and predicting the economy flows: A time-varying parameter global vector autoregressive integrated the machine learning model0.64422