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Estimating the volatility of Bitcoin using GARCH models

Samuel Asante Gyamerah

arXiv 11 Sep 2019 · Finance — Statistical Finance

arXiv:1909.04903 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

In this paper, an application of three GARCH-type models (sGARCH, iGARCH, and tGARCH) with Student t-distribution, Generalized Error distribution (GED), and Normal Inverse Gaussian (NIG) distribution are examined. The new development allows for the modeling of volatility clustering effects, the leptokurtic and the skewed distributions in the return series of Bitcoin. Comparative to the two distributions, the normal inverse Gaussian distribution captured adequately the fat tails and skewness in all the GARCH type models. The tGARCH model was the best model as it described the asymmetric occurrence of shocks in the Bitcoin market. That is, the response of investors to the same amount of good and bad news are distinct. From the empirical results, it can be concluded that tGARCH-NIG was the best model to estimate the volatility in the return series of Bitcoin. Generally, it would be optimal to use the NIG distribution in GARCH type models since time series of most cryptocurrency are leptokurtic.

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Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
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7D. A. Dickey, W. A. Fuller (1979) Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root0.40511100%
8R. Engle (2001) Garch 101: The use of arch/garch models in applied econometrics0.40511100%
9L. R. Glosten, R. Jagannathan, D. E. Runkle (1993) On the relation between the expected value and the volatility of the nominal excess return on stocks0.40511100%
10C. M. Jarque, A. K. Bera (1987) A test for normality of observations and regression residuals0.40511100%

Showing the top 10 of 13 scored citations.