Nicolaj Søndergaard Mühlbach, Mikkel Slot Nielsen
arXiv 9 Sep 2019 · Econometrics · 4 citations (OpenAlex)
arXiv:1909.03968 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text
We recast the synthetic controls for evaluating policies as a counterfactual prediction problem and replace its linear regression with a nonparametric model inspired by machine learning. The proposed method enables us to achieve accurate counterfactual predictions and we provide theoretical guarantees. We apply our method to a highly debated policy: the relocation of the US embassy to Jerusalem. In Israel and Palestine, we find that the average number of weekly conflicts has increased by roughly 103% over 48 weeks since the relocation was announced on December 6, 2017. By using conformal inference and placebo tests, we justify our model and find the increase to be statistically significant.
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The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.
| Reference | Intensity | Mentions | Sections | Main text | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Abadie, A., A. Diamond, and J. Hainmueller (2010) Synthetic control methods for comparative case studies: estimating the effect of Californias tobacco control program | 1.000 | 13 | 4 | 100% |
| 2 | Chernozhukov, V., K. Wuthrich, and Y. Zhu (2017) An exact and robust conformal inference method for counterfactual and synthetic controls | 0.874 | 6 | 2 | 100% |
| 3 | Doudchenko, N. and G. W. Imbens (2017) Balancing, regression, difference-in-differences and synthetic control methods: a synthesis | 0.874 | 5 | 2 | 100% |
| 4 | Breiman, L (2001) Random forests | 0.737 | 4 | 4 | 50% |
| 5 | Wager, S. and G. Walther (2015) Adaptive concentration of regression trees, with application to random forests | 0.644 | 4 | 2 | 50% |
| Chernozhukov | unmatched citation key Chernozhukov | 0.644 | 4 | 1 | 100% |
| Duflo | unmatched citation key Duflo | 0.644 | 4 | 1 | 100% |
| 8 | Abadie, A. and J. Gardeazabal (2003) The economic costs of conflict: a case study of the Basque country | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 9 | Raleigh, C., A. Linke, H. Hegre, and J. Karlsen (2010) Introducing ACLED: an armed conflict location and event dataset: special data feature | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 10 | Athey, S., J. Tibshirani, and S. Wager (2019) Generalized random forests | 0.585 | 3 | 1 | 100% |
Showing the top 10 of 143 scored citations. 2 of these could not be matched to a bibliography entry, so only the citation key is shown.