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Demand forecasting techniques for build-to-order lean manufacturing supply chains

Rodrigo Rivera-Castro, Ivan Nazarov, Yuke Xiang, Alexander Pletneev, Ivan Maksimov, Evgeny Burnaev

arXiv 20 May 2019 · Machine Learning · 5 citations (OpenAlex)

arXiv:1905.07902 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

Build-to-order (BTO) supply chains have become common-place in industries such as electronics, automotive and fashion. They enable building products based on individual requirements with a short lead time and minimum inventory and production costs. Due to their nature, they differ significantly from traditional supply chains. However, there have not been studies dedicated to demand forecasting methods for this type of setting. This work makes two contributions. First, it presents a new and unique data set from a manufacturer in the BTO sector. Second, it proposes a novel data transformation technique for demand forecasting of BTO products. Results from thirteen forecasting methods show that the approach compares well to the state-of-the-art while being easy to implement and to explain to decision-makers.

Citation extraction

31
references
32
in-text mentions
31
distinct cited
11
self-citations
4,374
main-text words

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Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Chase, C.W.: Demand-Driven Forecasting. John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hob… (2013)0.64422100%
2Pompa, C., Burke, T.: Data Science and Analytics Skills Shortage: Eq… (2017)0.40511100%
3Rivera, R., Burnaev, E.: Forecasting of commercial sales with large… (2017) self0.40511100%
4Agell, N., Carricano, M.: Adopcion e impacto del Big Data y Advanced… (2018)0.40511100%
5Korotin, A., V'yugin, V., Burnaev, E.: Aggregating strategies for lo… (2018) self0.40511100%
6Ahmed, N.K., Atiya, A.F., El Gayar, N., El-Shishiny, H.: An empirica… (2010)0.40511100%
7Attar, K.S.: Regression for Demand Forecasting 5(1 (2016)0.40511100%
8Christensen, W.J., Germain, R.: Build-to-order and just-in-time as p… (2004)0.40511100%
9Safin, A., Burnaev, E.: Conformal kernel expected similarity for ano… (2017) self0.40511100%
10Volkhonskiy, D., Burnaev, E., Nouretdinov, I., Gammerman, A., Vovk,… (2017) self0.40511100%

Showing the top 10 of 31 scored citations.