Patrick H. O'Callaghan
arXiv 5 Apr 2019 · Theoretical Economics
arXiv:1904.02934 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text
Consider a predictor who ranks eventualities on the basis of past cases: for instance a search engine ranking webpages given past searches. Resampling past cases leads to different rankings and the extraction of deeper information. Yet a rich database, with sufficiently diverse rankings, is often beyond reach. Inexperience demands either "on the fly" learning-by-doing or prudence: the arrival of a novel case does not force (i) a revision of current rankings, (ii) dogmatism towards new rankings, or (iii) intransitivity. For this higher-order framework of inductive inference, we derive a suitably unique numerical representation of these rankings via a matrix on eventualities x cases and describe a robust test of prudence. Applications include: the success/failure of startups; the veracity of fake news; and novel conditions for the existence of a yield curve that is robustly arbitrage-free.
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The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.
| Reference | Intensity | Mentions | Sections | Main text | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Argenziano, R. and Gilboa, I (2019) Second-order induction in prediction problems | 0.737 | 3 | 2 | 100% |
| 2 | Enkavi, A. Z., Weber, B., Zweyer, I., Wagner, J., Elger, C. E., Webe… (2017) Evidence for hippocampal dependence of value-based decisions | 0.644 | 4 | 1 | 100% |
| 3 | Bradbury, H. and Ross, K (1990) The effects of novelty and choice materials on the intransitivity of preferences of children and adults | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 4 | Cowles, A (1933) Can stock market forecasters forecast? | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 5 | Dobkin, D. P. and Reiss, S. P (1980) The complexity of linear programming | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 6 | Fama, E. F. and French, K. R (2010) Luck versus skill in the cross-section of mutual fund returns | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 7 | Fama, E. F. and MacBeth, J. D (1973) Risk, return, and equilibrium: Empirical tests | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 8 | Grant, S., Kline, J., Meneghel, I., Quiggin, J., and Tourky, R (2015) A theory for robust experiments for choice under uncertainty | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 9 | Grant, S. and Quiggin, J (2015) A preference model for choice subject to surprise | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 10 | Harvey, C. R. and Liu, Y (2015) Lucky factors | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
Showing the top 10 of 29 scored citations.