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Model Selection in Utility-Maximizing Binary Prediction

Jiun-Hua Su

arXiv 2 Mar 2019 · Econometrics · publishedJournal of Econometrics (2020) · 3 citations (OpenAlex)

arXiv:1903.00716 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

The maximum utility estimation proposed by Elliott and Lieli (2013) can be viewed as cost-sensitive binary classification; thus, its in-sample overfitting issue is similar to that of perceptron learning. A utility-maximizing prediction rule (UMPR) is constructed to alleviate the in-sample overfitting of the maximum utility estimation. We establish non-asymptotic upper bounds on the difference between the maximal expected utility and the generalized expected utility of the UMPR. Simulation results show that the UMPR with an appropriate data-dependent penalty achieves larger generalized expected utility than common estimators in the binary classification if the conditional probability of the binary outcome is misspecified.

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Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Elliott, G., Lieli, R.P (2013) Predicting binary outcomes0.97426692%
2Bartlett, P.L., Boucheron, S., Lugosi, G (2002) Model selection and error estimation0.87472100%
3Fromont, M (2007) Model selection by bootstrap penalization for classification0.7547343%
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5Fung, G.M., Mangasarian, O (2004) A feature selection newton method for support vector machine classification0.7373367%
6Anthony, M., Bartlett, P.L (1999) Neural Network Learning: Theoretical Foundations0.73732100%
7Koltchinskii, V (2001) Rademacher penalties and structural risk minimization0.73732100%
8Konishi, S., Kitagawa, G (2008) Information Criteria and Statistical Modeling0.73732100%
9Kosorok, M.R (2008) Introduction to Empirical Processes and Semiparametric Inference0.64441100%
10Massart, P (2000) Some applications of concentration inequalities to statistics0.6443267%

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Cited by, within the corpus

arXiv econ.EM papers that cite this one, ranked by how heavily they lean on it.

Citing paperIntensityMentionsSections
1Binary Choice under Asymmetric Loss in a Data-Rich Environment: Theory and an Application to Algorithmic Fairness0.51121